SMM Tin Morning Brief | The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed the actual night session at 409,590, up 0.37%; LME 3M tin fell 1.03% to $53,786; SHFE tin warrants decreased by 255 mt to 4,113 — September 30, 2026 (Wednesday)
[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed the actual night session at 409,590 yuan/mt, up 1,490 yuan/mt (+0.37%). The night session opened at 409,150/mt, dipped to a low of 406,250/mt, and shot up to a high of 410,610/mt, with a trading range of 4,360 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 15,500 lots, and open interest stood at 4,127 lots (down 2,635 lots from 6,762 lots the previous day, mainly because open interest in SN2611 has already surpassed it at 30,000 lots, with contract rollover and position migration underway, showing no clear bullish or bearish position reduction signal). LME 3M tin officially closed at $53,786/mt on September 29, down 1.03%; LME Cash-3M tin spot discounts stood at $107.98/mt (September 28), with overseas nearby months remaining weak. LME tin fell more than SHFE tin, mainly because the US dollar index strengthened to 100.94 on Monday, pressuring pricing outside China.
[Macro] The US dollar index closed at 100.94 on September 28, broadly bearish for nonferrous metals. COMEX gold plunged 4% intraday on Monday and silver fell 5.82%, signaling risk-averse sentiment disturbance. SHFE gold continued to fall 1.46% on September 29 and SHFE silver fell 2.17%, while polysilicon led declines with a 2.41% drop. However, most base metals on the SHFE rose — SHFE tin bucked the trend to close up 0.54% (most-traded contract), diverging from the LME.
[Fundamentals] The biggest variable on the supply side today: Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. Tin Branch began routine maintenance shutdowns of tin smelting equipment starting September 30, expected to last no more than 45 days. The company stated that the maintenance has been incorporated into the annual production plan and will not have a significant impact on the full-year plan, but the market has formed expectations of marginal tightening in refined tin production in the short term. On the inventory side: LME tin inventory decreased by 110 mt to 4,455 mt on September 28, and SHFE tin futures warrants decreased by 255 mt to 4,113 mt on September 29, with absolute inventory levels in a low range for recent years. On the demand side, with the National Day holiday approaching (market closed October 1-7), downstream pre-holiday restocking has gradually wound down, and post-holiday demand verification will need to wait until the market reopens on October 8.
[Summary] On the last trading day before the holiday, SHFE tin is expected to move sideways above the 410,000 yuan/mt level today — declining inventories across all three locations combined with the Yunnan Tin maintenance provide bullish support, but weaker LME tin and risk-averse sentiment ahead of the National Day holiday constrain the upside. Attention is suggested on the direction of the opening gap on the first trading day after the holiday.
