SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE Tin SN2610 Night Session Breaks Above the 410,000 Mark; Tin Industry Co. to Halt Production for 45-Day Maintenance Starting Sep 30 — September 30, 2026 (Wednesday)

Futures

On the LME, LME 3M tin closed at $53,786/mt on September 29, down 1.03% from the previous day, falling below the 54,000 mark. LME tin inventory decreased by 110 mt to 4,455 mt on the day, with cancelled warrants at 1,080 mt and a cancellation ratio of approximately 24.2%. The ratio of cancelled warrants remained elevated, indicating that spot circulation remains tight.

On the SHFE, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 409,150, hit a high of 410,610 and a low of 406,250, and closed at 409,590 in the daytime session on September 29, with a settlement reference price of 408,590. This was up 2,180 yuan/mt, or 0.54%, from the previous settlement of 407,410, holding firmly above the 408,000 mark. Trading volume was 15,500 lots and open interest stood at 4,127 lots (down 2,635 lots on the day). In the early morning night session on September 30, the next most-traded SHFE tin contract SNS was quoted at 409,930 (+0.33%) as of 01:00, with an intraday high of 415,290. The actual night session close is likely to settle near 410,000 yuan/mt.

Spot

SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 409,100-410,900 yuan/mt on September 29, averaging 410,000 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Based on the SN2610 close of 409,590 on that day, the average domestic #1 tin price was at a premium of approximately 410 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract. In the spot market, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling has entered its final stage, with inquiries dominated by just-in-time procurement from electronics solder enterprises. Overall transaction pace remained steady.

Inventory in Three Dimensions

LME tin inventory stood at 4,455 mt on September 29 (down 110 mt on the day), with cancelled warrants at 1,080 mt and a cancellation ratio of 24.2%.

SHFE tin futures warrants totaled 4,113 mt on September 29 (down 255 mt on the day), a notable destocking from 4,368 mt on September 28.

SMM's latest domestic tin ingot social inventory reading was 9,615 mt (as of the previous Friday), up 898 mt WoW. The seasonal rebound in domestic social inventory continues to diverge from LME destocking.

Macro

The US Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% at the September FOMC meeting, marking the third hike of the year. Powell struck a hawkish tone, stating that inflation stickiness is higher than expected. The US dollar index strengthened to around 101, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to the 5.2% range. Tightening macro liquidity continues to exert sustained pressure on nonferrous metals valuations.

According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the probability of the US Fed holding rates steady in September is 37.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike is 62.3%. For October, the probability of holding rates steady has dropped to 10.2%, while the probability of a 25 bp cut is 89.8%. The market expects October may bring the first rate cut of the year.

Oil price side, Brent crude oil closed at $99.228/bbl on September 29 (+1.43%). Middle East geopolitical risks and OPEC+ expectations for production cuts resonated, with firm crude oil supporting inflation stickiness.

Fundamentals

Ore side, the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State fell short of expectations. The current resumption level at the Man Maw mining area has only recovered to 40%-50% of pre-ban levels, with the rainy season continuing to constrain transportation and mining. On the Indonesian side, there are no major new policy disturbances for now, and the ore side overall maintains a pattern of "tight in Myanmar, stable in Indonesia".

Smelting side, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. announced on the evening of September 29 that its tin branch will commence production halt and maintenance starting September 30, 2026, expected to last no more than 45 days. This maintenance has already been included in the beginning-of-year budget and will have no significant impact on the full-year production plan. The maintenance starts on the last trading day before the holiday, marginally tightening domestic refined tin supply in the short term. Combined with TCs still at a low level of 11,000-13,000 yuan/mt, smelters have limited willingness to sell.

Demand side, AI computing power-related solder orders remain resilient. Earlier SMM data showed that operating rates at electronic solder enterprises continued to recover. Downstream players adopted a "purchasing as needed, wait-and-see" stance ahead of the National Day holiday, with limited willingness to actively restock. Macro rate hikes and pre-holiday risk-off sentiment jointly capped intraday rebound room.

Spot market

On September 29, the daytime session of SN2610 closed at 409,590 yuan/mt, with settlement at 408,590 yuan/mt, and the night session continued to consolidate on a strong note. SMM #1 tin averaged 410,000 yuan/mt, at a premium of about 410 yuan/mt over the most-traded contract. On the last trading day before the holiday, trading pace in China's spot market trended mediocre. On September 30 (the last trading day before the holiday, no night session), SN2610 is expected to consolidate on a strong note within the 408,000-412,000 yuan/mt range. Attention will be on the pace of domestic social inventory destocking after Yunnan Tin's production halt and maintenance takes effect, and whether LME canceled warrants as a percentage can rise further. On the first trading day after the holiday (October 9), macro liquidity expectations and inventory movements outside China will once again become the dominant price drivers.