[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] 20260929

[SMM Daily Review on Coking Coal and Coke]

Coking coal market:

Linfen low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 2,510 yuan/mt.

On the coking coal side, some mines have completed or are close to completing their annual capacity targets and have successively submitted production increase documents, but the approval cycle is long. Combined with high-frequency safety inspections at production sites, overall mine operating rates remain low, leaving limited room for production increases. The actual production release from resumed mines in Shanxi remains to be seen, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to see substantial change in the short term, so coking coal prices remain supported.

Coke market:

The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - coke dry quenching stood at 2,420 yuan/mt.

In terms of news, on the 29th, some steel mills lowered wet-quenched coke prices by 100 yuan/mt and dry-quenched coke prices by 110 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on October 1, 2026. On the supply side, coke producers' operating rates edged up slightly, but raw material costs remained high, and total production was still below the same period in history, with the pattern of voluntary production restrictions unchanged. Downstream maintained just-in-time procurement, and coke producers' in-factory inventory generally stayed at low levels, supporting coke spot prices. On the demand side, blast furnace hot metal production stayed high, and rigid demand for coke still existed, but steel mill profitability continued to weaken, increasing resistance to high-priced coke. Procurement enthusiasm was suppressed, willingness to restock proactively was weak, and steel mills' own coke inventory fell to low levels. Overall, steel mill losses constrained procurement behavior. Even with expectations of pre-holiday restocking ahead of the National Day holiday, market pessimism continued to ferment, and the first round of coke price cuts is imminent. [SMM Steel]