[SMM Steel] Европейский горячекатаный рулон окутан выжидательными настроениями: покупатели ждут сброса квот 1 октября, пока рынок остаётся без изменений

The European Commission proposes barring Egypt from importing EU-origin ferrous and non-ferrous scrap once the revised Waste Shipment Regulation fully takes effect on 21 May 2027. Egypt, with India, Pakistan, Morocco, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia, failed to prove environmentally sound waste management. Egypt imported 1.86 million tonnes of EU scrap in 2025 and 2.12 million tonnes in H1 2026, up 59.7% y-o-y, ranking third globally; about half its ferrous scrap supply comes from the EU. Mills would need alternative scrap or more DRI: European freight is 20-25 USD/tonne versus 35-40 USD/tonne from China or the US. Egypt has also lost 213 million USD of steel exports to EU and US anti-dumping measures. Feedback closes 16 October; adoption is planned for Q4 2026.

Salzgitter and its partners at Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) have permanently decommissioned blast furnace A in Duisburg, removing the unit from the production chain. The JV, held by Salzgitter, thyssenkrupp Steel and Vallourec, supplies slab for seamless pipe and flat products. With no restart option retained, the partners avoid future carbon costs and free capital and site space for electric arc furnace and direct reduced iron capacity. The move aligns with Salzgitter's SALCOS low-carbon programme, which targets a roughly 95% cut in CO2 emissions at its flagship works by 2033. For the market, it means a further structural contraction of German blast furnace crude steel supply, as ETS costs and high power prices accelerate the retirement of ironmaking assets.

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts global crude steel production will reach 2.2-2.4 billion tonnes by 2050, according to Yieh Corp. This implies continued growth from the current level of about 1.9 billion tonnes, driven by infrastructure development, energy transition investment and urbanisation in emerging economies. The wide range reflects uncertainty over decarbonisation pathways and steel demand intensity. The forecast highlights the tension between rising output and the industry's net-zero ambitions, requiring significant investment in low-emission technologies such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and electric arc furnaces.