Cast aluminum alloy reduced positions and rebounded in the night session, moving sideways before the holiday [SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment]

9.29 SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment

Futures: Overnight, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2611 contract opened at 23,535 yuan/mt, quickly dipped to a low of 23,470 yuan/mt after the open, then consolidated and rebounded, shot up to 23,730 yuan/mt during the session, pulled back slightly from the high, and closed at 23,685 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt or 0.74%, with a trading range of 23,470-23,730 yuan/mt. Night session trading volume was 5,389 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,300 lots, showing a pattern of rising prices on reduced open interest. The 4-hour chart closed as a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow. Resistance exists at the previous high of 23,860 yuan/mt. The DKX indicator's B line remains above the D line, while the KD indicator's K line is slightly below the D line, suggesting a short-term consolidation and repair phase.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 28, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2611) at 10:15 was 830 yuan/mt.

Aluminum scrap: Yesterday, SMM A00 aluminum price closed at 24,170 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day, and the aluminum scrap market overall declined by 100 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, tax inspections in Henan, Hunan, and other regions continued to intensify and expand in depth. Compliant, invoice-backed aluminum scrap became increasingly scarce, providing strong support to prices. Meanwhile, non-invoice-backed cargo faced narrowing sales channels under compliance pressure, forcing some traders to cut prices to sell, keeping prices under sustained downward pressure. On the demand side, the "September peak season" for cast aluminum alloy fell short of expectations, with demand yet to see substantial growth. Demand for wrought aluminum alloy was moderate, and in-factory inventory of aluminum scrap was relatively ample. This week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to continue consolidating on a strong note. The mainstream trading range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) is expected to center around 20,500-21,200 yuan/mt. Close attention should be paid to the scope of tax inspection expansion and downstream stocking before the National Day holiday.

Silicon metal: On September 28, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 price remained stable; oxygen-blown #553 price remained stable; #521 price remained stable; #441 price remained stable; #421 price remained stable; #421 silicone-grade price remained stable; #3303 price remained stable. Individual silicon prices in Guangdong, Tianjin, and other regions declined.

Markets outside China: On the import side, overseas ADC12 offers remained in the range of $3,100-3,200/mt, with import profit margin near breakeven. Future attention should be paid to the replenishment of imported cargo.

Summary: On Monday, ADC12 market quotes overall remained stable, with enterprises generally showing weak willingness to adjust prices. SMM ADC12 price held steady at 24,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Cost side, although aluminum prices and futures weakened, the adjustment in aluminum scrap raw material prices was limited. Coupled with stricter enforcement of tax invoice policies recently, compliant raw material procurement costs for some enterprises remained at relatively high levels, providing strong support to spot prices from the cost side. Demand side, with the National Day holiday approaching, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling was relatively mediocre, and market transactions lacked significant growth, limiting the upward momentum of prices from the demand side. Overall, enterprise quotes before the holiday are expected to remain stable, and future trends will require close attention to actual transactions and changes in raw material costs.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]