[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Solar cell divergence and destocking, EVA continues to rise while film awaits price increases

SMM, September 29:

Wafer

Prices: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers are 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers are 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece. Top-tier players have yet to make notable price adjustments, and trading activity in the wafer market remains limited. With the implementation of 232-related rules, the direct impact on China's wafer market is relatively limited in the short term, but close attention should be paid to the pace of inventory digestion outside China and potential backflows of supply.

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, September wafer production is expected to increase by about 2 GW MoM, with supply edging up slightly.

Inventory: Pre-holiday stockpiling provided some support for wafer shipments, and inventory was drawn down in phases, but as stockpiling winds down, destocking momentum may gradually weaken.

Solar Cell

Prices: Solar cell prices held steady today, with quotes across all sizes remaining stable. The 210R price range held at 0.305-0.314 yuan/W; the 183 price range held at 0.298-0.301 yuan/W; and the 210N price range remained stable at 0.29-0.296 yuan/W, with solar cell manufacturers' quote center steady near 0.295 yuan/W. Some solar cell manufacturers indicated that prices are likely to remain stable before the National Day holiday. Although upstream and downstream negotiations remain contentious, orders supported by pre-holiday stockpiling and centralized module tenders are expected to keep prices stable in the short term. Going forward, the focus will be on post-holiday demand absorption and the transmission of rising 210N orders to prices.

Production: September solar cell production has already declined from August, and October production is expected to continue the trend of production cuts, mainly because some manufacturers have gradually begun technological transformation of cell production lines, limiting production release in the short term. Actual October production will depend on the pace of each company's technological transformation; if transformation progresses faster than expected, the supply contraction could widen further.

Inventory: Solar cell inventory edged down again this week, reinforcing the trend of continuous destocking. Some solar cell manufacturers indicated that orders are booked through mid-October, and cell inventory is tight. This round of destocking was mainly driven by the release of centralized module tenders, which significantly boosted demand for 210N cells. With improving demand and supply-side production cuts from technological transformation, the tight inventory situation is likely to persist in the short term, providing strong support for solar cell prices. Attention will focus on the sustainability of tender orders and whether demand spillover can lift 183 and 210R.

PV film

prices:

PV-grade EVA: Current mainstream spot transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin range from 11,000 to 11,200 yuan/mt, with settlement prices at leading petrochemical plants reaching 11,100 yuan/mt. Resin prices continue to edge up. Earlier raw material price increases have provided cost support for resin, and the market still retains some upward momentum. However, raw material prices have gradually stabilized recently, narrowing the room for further cost-driven price increases. The pace of PV-grade EVA price increases is expected to slow gradually, with market attention shifting further toward supply-demand changes and spot conditions.

PV film: Current prices for 420g transparent EVA film are 5.63-5.71 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film prices are 5.47-5.55 yuan/m². Overall film market prices remain stable. A new round of monthly price negotiations has begun. With resin prices staying high, cost support for film remains intact, and film manufacturers still have some willingness to raise prices, though the actual room for price increases will depend on module orders and downstream acceptance. Film prices are expected to have limited upside in this round of negotiations.

Production: PV-grade EVA production remains generally stable; film production schedules for October are expected to edge down MoM from September.

Inventory: Current inventories at petrochemical plants are at relatively low levels, while film manufacturers' inventories remain within a reasonable range.