SMM News, September 29:
Since early July, SMM has identified six new primary aluminium projects located in Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The total proposed capacity expansion from 2026 to long-term horizon stands at 2.66 million tonnes, bringing the aggregate proposed capacity to 23.5 million tonnes.
News of new projects continues to emerge, yet most are still at relatively early stages, as outlined below:
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Project 5 in Azerbaijan: According to public information, Azerbaijan is exploring the feasibility of this project.
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Progress at the Inola aluminium smelter has encountered several challenges amid concerns over environmental impacts, tribal sovereignty and public health; project delivery remains uncertain.
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No substantive progress has been observed for the new greenfield electrolytic aluminium project in Tanzania to date.
The commissioning outlook for proposed capacity exceeding 10 million tonnes requires continuous monitoring. Over 10 million tonnes of primary aluminium capacity is scheduled to come online during 2026–2030, with 2027 seeing the most concentrated commissioning, accounting for 33% of total expected capacity additions.
(including a small amount of capacity commissioned in 2025)
In the past two months, several projects have faced delays to their commissioning schedules due to slower-than-expected construction and other factors. Since July, SMM has assessed five projects experiencing delays of varying magnitudes. Expected total capacity commissioning for 2026 has been revised down from 2.4 million tonnes to approximately 1.9 million tonnes.
Some capacity originally slated for 2026 commissioning is now expected to be pushed to 2027. Meanwhile, portions of capacity planned for 2027 will be deferred to 2028. The overall projected 2027 commissioning volume remains largely stable, edging down by only 0.12 million tonnes versus the prior forecast, and currently sits at roughly 3.435 million tonnes. Indonesia remains the primary hub for capacity commissioning, with around 3.5 million tonnes of proposed capacity to be commissioned in 2026–2027, representing 66% of the 5.34 million tonnes of total expected overseas capacity additions.
Up to now, 1.48 million tonnes of the capacity scheduled for 2026 commissioning has been brought into operation, with the remaining 0.42 million tonnes expected to start up in Q4 2026. SMM will continue to track project timelines and implementation progress.
