[SMM Malaysia Weekly Review] HRC Steady; Long Steel Offers Diverge, Semi-Finished Supply Tightens

[Indonesia] On 25 September 2026, slab prices fell by 5 USD/tonne, and then fell again by 2 USD/tonne, now standing at 483 USD/tonne FOB. This is a long-awaited development and is likely due to several factors, ranging from a complete lack of demand from China – as they have been on holiday since Thursday – to mills seeking new markets and lowering prices to attract buyers. Essentially, they are trying to sell and adapt to buyers’ preferences, which have not been met over the past 2–3 weeks. Buyers should keep a close eye on how this develops, although nothing has happened so far. If prices continue to fall, it is unlikely that buyers will make purchases at this stage.

Indian HRC export indications for Europe rose from around 640USD/tonne FOB India on Monday to 650USD/tonne by Friday, but North European indications remained at 715–730USD/tonne CFR and no fresh sale was confirmed at the higher FOB level. Sellers held firm as domestic order books and limited spot availability gave mills little reason to discount export material. European buyers continued to weigh quota access and customs-clearance timing before committing to new cargoes: the European Commission’s ledger, checked on September 28 and last updated on September 25, showed 2,991.01tonnes remaining in India’s July–September HRC quota, or 98.0% utilisation. The quota was critical but still open for drawing requests; a separate 149,318.61-tonne allocation is listed for October–December. Billet export indications eased from around 470USD/tonne FOB India on Monday to 465–470USD/tonne by Thursday, and no current export offer was heard on Friday, underscoring the lack of fresh trading evidence at the week’s close. Mumbai HRC remained at approximately 625–630USD/tonne (60,000–60,500INR/tonne) EXW, excluding GST. Firm coking-coal costs continued to support mill asking levels; a possible 2,000INR/tonne domestic increase in October was still a market expectation, not an implemented rise.

ArcelorMittal announced on September 25, 2026, the indefinite suspension of operations at its Ukrainian subsidiary, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, following four direct missile strikes over five weeks that killed five workers and severely damaged the primary ironmaking complex. Prior to the 2022 conflict, the integrated plant operated as Ukraine's largest steelmaker with a historical annual capacity of over 8 million tonnes of pig iron, 7 million tonnes of crude steel (producing 4.9 million tonnes in 2021), and 5 million tonnes of rolled products. Since 2022, output had been constrained by two-thirds to 1.0–1.65 million tonnes annually, and the full shutdown removes this remaining volume along with $1 billion in facility value via non-cash impairment.