Silver futures fall under pressure as market holiday sentiment intensifies ahead of the National Day holiday [SMM Daily Review]

Today, SMM’s 10:00 a.m. price for SGE Ag (T+D) was 15,215 yuan/kg, with the premium/discount range quoted at parity to +10 yuan/kg against TD, and the weighted average price at 4.27 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, US PMI far exceeded expectations and US Fed officials frequently struck a hawkish tone, fueling market concerns about a resumption of the rate hike cycle and weighing on precious metals futures, while the repeated twists in US-Iran tensions added uncertainty. Meanwhile, signs of gold prices decoupling from interest rates and ETF open interest hitting a seven-month high provided bottom support. Going forward, attention should be paid to progress in US-Iran talks, US Fed moves, and September non-farm payrolls data.

In the spot market, with the National Day holiday approaching, the holiday atmosphere was strong. Early morning supplier quotes decreased, and the price spread widened slightly. Early morning quotes in Shanghai were at a discount of 60-50 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE 2612 contract, or at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg against SGE Ag (T+D). Downstream inquiries were moderate, with most purchases negotiated based on orders, and transactions skewed toward the mid-to-low end of quotes, while some orders for cargoes with invoices dated this month skewed toward the high end. Overall, as concerns about a resumption of the rate hike cycle grew, sentiment in the precious metals market turned cautious, awaiting new macro direction. In the spot market, quotes were sparse near the holiday, downstream purchasing sentiment was normal, and transactions were concentrated in the parity to slight premium range against SGE Ag (T+D).