Rate hike expectations pressure copper prices; LME copper edged lower overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Sep 28, 2026 08:37 (GMT+8)

SMM, September 28: Overnight LME copper closed lower, mainly driven by increased bearish positions; SHFE copper was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. With macro expectations for interest rate hikes weighing on prices and supply tightness easing marginally, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.

1. Overnight futures

LME copper: Opened at $14,668.5/mt, hit a high of $14,691.5/mt and a low of $14,568.5/mt, and closed at $14,632/mt, down 0.1%. Trading volume was 10,000 lots, with open interest at 262,000 lots, up 419 lots from the previous trading day, driven by increased bearish positions.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract: Closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

2. On the macro front

Trump is expected to hold more talks with Iran this week, and Iran has indicated it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, easing geopolitical conflict risks. However, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to build, capping the upside for copper prices.

3. Fundamentals

Supply side, some imported cargoes arrived, but overall arrivals were limited, and the tightness in available market supply eased marginally. Demand side, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling was largely completed, and market purchasing sentiment cooled.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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