[SMM Steel] European HRC: Supply Tightness Fails to Lift Prices

[Iran] Iranian steel exports displayed a distinct structural divergence of "constrained maritime logistics versus buoyant overland border trade." Disrupted Black Sea supplies from Russia and Ukraine diverted West Asian buying interest toward Iranian material. Iranian suppliers recently concluded at least 15,000 tonnes of square billets at 420–430 USD/tonne FCA at Iranian border crossings, primarily for transit via Iraq to Syria and Jordan; despite border congestion inflating transport costs, buyers readily paid premiums to secure prompt cargoes. In contrast, seaborne exports were severely stifled by US naval enforcement, vessel shortages, and elevated insurance premiums, leaving liquidity for bulk shipments paralyzed (freight to Sohar, Oman stood at 18–25 USD/tonne). With major mills fully booked through late November, spot sea liquidity remained thin, limited to small billet parcels sold to neighboring Gulf markets at 410–415 USD/tonne FOB. Notably, slab export activity ground to a halt as mills turned their focus entirely to domestic demand. In the flat steel segment, HRC moved steadily via the Shalamcheh border crossing to Iraq at 540–560 USD/tonne FCA; meanwhile, across the Caspian Sea route, a lack of available vessel capacity prevented Russian material from concluding, keeping import activity virtually frozen.

For the week ending September 24, 2026, total weekly output across China's five major steel products decreased by 144,600 tonnes week-on-week to 7.7968 million tonnes. Total inventories dropped by 557,600 tonnes (-3.6% WoW) to 14.8197 million tonnes, with construction steel stock declining 6.9% to ~7.10 million tonnes and flat steel stock falling 0.4% to ~7.71 million tonnes. Apparent weekly steel consumption recovered to 8.3544 million tonnes, with construction steel demand expanding by 8.1% week-on-week.