During the 2026 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, China's aluminum processing sectors generally maintained high production continuity, with holiday factors causing relatively limited disruption to the supply side, though divergence in operations was evident across sectors and enterprises. In the primary alloy sector, industry leaders generally maintained normal production, and downstream clients had no holiday shutdown arrangements, keeping the supply side stable. In the plate/sheet, strip and foil sector, leading enterprises sustained continuous operations backed by mature holiday production support systems, but divergence within the industry intensified. Some enterprises planned maintenance in October without halting production, while others proactively lowered operating rates to 50% and implemented rotating production line shutdowns to optimize capacity structure during the holiday. The secondary alloy sector mainly operated with continuous production or brief shutdowns. Affected by tight raw material supply, elevated costs, and stricter tax invoice compliance, some enterprises extended holiday shutdowns compared with 2025, easing operating pressure through load reduction and maintenance. In the aluminum wire and cable sector, mainstream enterprises largely maintained normal production during the holiday, with only individual production lines undergoing maintenance that caused phased load declines. Overall, during the dual holidays, the aluminum processing industry's supply side remained resilient with localized phased production cuts. Pre-holiday downstream stockpiling provided some support to demand. After the holiday, attention should focus on the pace of production resumptions, improvement in downstream orders, and the further impact of aluminum price trends on peak-season demand.
Primary alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises in China stood at 60%, maintaining a relatively stable overall trend. Production pace at the enterprise level remained steady, while downstream demand recovery fell short of expectations. High aluminum prices constrained trading activity and procurement demand to some extent. During the holiday, downstream clients had no shutdown arrangements, and primary aluminum alloy enterprises generally maintained normal production plans, with operating rates expected to remain stable. Surveyed enterprises indicated that market conditions are expected to improve after the holiday, with overall operating rates anticipated to rise. However, the core constraint remains sluggish end-use consumption recovery, compounded by aluminum prices fluctuating at highs, which may further suppress downstream restocking willingness. Overall, the primary aluminum alloy industry currently maintains stability on the supply side. While demand has shown some recovery, it remains below expectations. Combined with the dampening effect of high aluminum prices on trade and consumption, the market is likely to continue a stable-to-weak operating pattern in the short term. Plate/sheet, strip and foil: The aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil industry maintained overall production resilience, but with the "September peak season" falling short of expectations and raw material-side disruptions remaining mild, expectations of divergent production performance before and after the holiday have intensified. Regarding pre-holiday shipments, shipments increased somewhat before the Mid-Autumn Festival, driven first by relatively stable aluminum prices recently and second by downstream clients' pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which to some extent eased enterprises' finished product inventory pressure. Most enterprises' orders on hand remained largely stable, and production schedule pace did not show obvious peak-season growth. Based on industry practice, industry leaders have established mature holiday production safeguard systems, with pre-holiday raw material stockpiling and other preparations essentially complete; combined with years of operating experience without holiday shutdowns, production continuity remains fully guaranteed. At the same time, however, some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in October, with no holiday break during the maintenance period, focusing primarily on equipment upkeep and supply-guaranteed production. Some enterprises also plan to proactively control production schedule pace before the holiday, planning to lower operating rates to 50%, with some production lines implementing rotating rest or maintenance, taking the opportunity to optimize capacity structure through equipment upkeep and ease operating pressure.
Secondary alloy: Secondary aluminum alloy enterprises' production arrangements overall centered on continuous production or brief shutdowns, but compared to 2025, some enterprises extended their holiday time. This was mainly affected by factors such as tight raw material supply, high procurement costs, stricter tax invoice compliance requirements, and downstream clients' holiday arrangements. With raw material procurement difficulties increasing and operating pressure rising, some enterprises adjusted by reducing production loads, arranging maintenance, or extending holidays; meanwhile, some enterprises needed to flexibly arrange production based on aluminum liquid supply and client order conditions. Overall, during the 2026 dual-holiday period, the secondary aluminum industry supply side continued its divergent pattern, with some enterprises implementing phased production cuts, and the impact of holiday factors on overall supply remained relatively limited. Pre-holiday downstream enterprise stockpiling provided some support to short-term secondary aluminum demand, and after the holiday, close attention should be paid to enterprises' production resumption pace, raw material procurement recovery, and the extent of downstream order improvement.
Aluminum wire and cable: China's mainstream aluminum wire and cable enterprises largely maintained normal production during the National Day holiday, with industry leaders not yet arranging shutdowns or holidays, and production lines remaining in continuous operation during the holiday. However, the survey also found that some enterprises reported partial production line maintenance arrangements, leading to a decline in production loads during certain periods. From the order perspective, power grid delivery expectations this year were poor, and enterprises' orders on hand decreased compared to the same period last year; combined with aluminum prices remaining persistently high, enterprises mostly focused on rigid-demand production and stockpiling as needed, with overall order delivery pace relatively slow and production enthusiasm relatively insufficient. On the raw material side, enterprises had essentially completed pre-holiday stockpiling, sufficient to meet holiday production needs, and no cases of production being affected by raw material supply were reported.
![Aluminum prices consolidate ahead of National Day holiday; watch for post-holiday inventory buildup and concentrated arrivals risks [SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/gdRUL20251217171651.jpg)
![China primary aluminum alloy industry leaders' operating rate recorded at 60%, production pace expected to remain stable during the holiday [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XfCZS20251217171655.jpg)