An SMM survey found that during the 2026 National Day holiday, overall production resilience in China's aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil industry remains intact. However, affected by a weaker-than-expected "September peak season" and subdued raw material-side disruptions, expectations of divergence in production performance before and after the holiday have intensified. On pre-holiday shipments, shipments increased somewhat before the Mid-Autumn Festival, driven first by relatively stable aluminum prices recently and second by downstream clients' pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which to some extent eased enterprises' finished product inventory pressure. Most enterprises' orders on hand remained largely stable, and production schedule pace did not show obvious peak-season growth. Based on industry practice, industry leaders have established mature holiday production support systems, with pre-holiday raw material stockpiling and other preparations essentially complete. Combined with years of operating experience without holiday shutdowns, production continuity remains fully guaranteed. At the same time, however, some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in October, with no holiday breaks during the maintenance period, focusing mainly on equipment upkeep and supply-guaranteed production. Some enterprises also plan to proactively control production schedule pace before the holiday, lowering their planned operating rate to 50%, with some production lines implementing rotating rest or maintenance, using the opportunity to optimize capacity structure through equipment upkeep and ease operating pressure.
Looking ahead to after the holiday, on the supply side, due to stricter tax inspections, aluminum scrap supply has decreased, and regions such as Luoyang and Changge have already reported tight supply of secondary cast-rolled coil. Currently, large plants' raw material inventories can still support normal production, but as in-plant raw material inventories continue to be consumed and this issue continues to develop, it will still have some impact on post-holiday operating rates. On the demand side, downstream consumption of aluminum plate/sheet and strip in the 2026 "September peak season" remained overall satisfactory. Based on current consumption momentum, enterprises generally hold a cautious attitude toward the sustainability of the peak season after the National Day holiday. Combined with the order transmission cycle and weak consumption trends, the gradual loss of export order support compared with H1, and high aluminum prices further suppressing downstream restocking willingness, SMM judges that peak-season momentum will be difficult to sustain until the traditional end of the cycle and may end early as soon as mid-October. SMM will continue to track order sustainability and inventory changes after the National Day holiday.
![Aluminum prices consolidate ahead of National Day holiday; watch for post-holiday inventory buildup and concentrated arrivals risks [SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/gdRUL20251217171651.jpg)
![China primary aluminum alloy industry leaders' operating rate recorded at 60%, production pace expected to remain stable during the holiday [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XfCZS20251217171655.jpg)
