[Brief Comment on China Iron Ore] Iron ore concentrate prices in the Tangshan area are likely to consolidate

Japan's JFE Steel expects its output to fall by about 600,000 tonnes after heavy rain and Typhoon No. 25 damaged facilities at its East Japan Works in the Chiba area. The company said the impact is likely to be prolonged because the typhoon caused additional damage after August downpours in Chiba. Several facilities were flooded in August; restoration has proceeded with safety first and operations resumed gradually, but blast furnaces have yet to return to normal. Typhoon No. 25 brought further flooding at some facilities there, with repairs under way. JFE said the estimated cut may change with restoration progress and it is still assessing impacts on output and earnings. Some deliveries have been delayed and the company is coordinating with customers to limit supply disruption.

India's crude steel output rose 4.6% y-o-y to 14.8 million tonnes in August, retaining its No.2 global rank, while world output slipped 1.2%, per worldsteel. China stayed first at 74.6 mt, down 3.7%; the US was third at an estimated 7.3 mt, up 3%; Japan made 6.7 mt, Russia 5.5 mt and South Korea 5.4 mt. The 70 reporting countries produced 144.2 mt, about 98% of 2025 world output. In January-August, India's output climbed 6% to 115.9 mt, China's fell 3.1% to 651.9 mt and global output eased 0.7% to 1.225 billion tonnes. Asia and Oceania made 106.7 mt in August, down 1.4%, dragged by China. Vietnam jumped 36.4% to 2.7 mt and Brazil fell 6.2% to 2.7 mt. North America gained 3.9%, Africa 8.8%; West Asia, South America and Russia plus other CIS excluding Ukraine fell 4.6%, 4.9% and 5.6%.

Ukraine's top steelmaker, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, said on Sept 25 it cannot restart production amid surging Russian strikes. The sector has absorbed at least nine ballistic missile attacks since August, costing nearly 100 million USD, per industry body Ukrmetallurgprom. Steel was 7% of Ukraine's GDP. Strikes have damaged blast furnaces and halted pig iron output, forcing Ukraine's three largest producers to suspend operations, the worst year since 2022, when Azovstal and Illich were destroyed and 40% of national output lost. Closed Black Sea ports block trade, rail and Polish/Romanian routes lift coal freight costs 50-60%, and June EU tariffs plus CBAM curb European sales. Even with 51 nations backing Black Sea trade at the UN Sept 23, restarting output needs months and tens of millions of dollars.