Downstream active restocking during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday drove spot premiums sharply higher; premiums are expected to decline next week [SMM South China copper cathode spot weekly review]

Published: Sep 24, 2026 15:24 (GMT+8)

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September 24, 2026 SMM News:

Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region showed a rapid and sharp upward trend. Inventory continued to decline, and downstream restocking increased ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday. Additionally, market concerns that maintenance at surrounding smelters after the National Day holiday would affect supply pushed premiums past the 1,000 yuan mark, hitting a multi-year high. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 1,400 yuan/mt, up 700 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 1,100 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from last Thursday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 1,040 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 50 yuan/mt higher in Shanghai, a relatively small spread that did not trigger inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 5,900 mt, down 1,300 mt from last Thursday, with warrants totaling 325 mt, unchanged from last Thursday. Specifically: This week, warehouse arrivals were 13,400 mt/week, up 2,200 mt/week WoW, slightly below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Arrivals of imported copper were not large this week, while arrivals of domestic copper increased slightly. Warehouse withdrawals were 14,000 mt/week, up 743 mt WoW, slightly below the annual average (14,200 mt/week), as downstream restocking was relatively active ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday.

Looking ahead to next week, arrivals of both domestic copper cathode and imported copper are expected to remain low, and total supply is expected to stay at low levels. Meanwhile, downstream consumption will be limited in pre-holiday stockpiling as many processing enterprises will be closed for 5-6 days during the National Day holiday. As a result, Guangdong inventory is expected to edge up next week, and spot premiums will pull back accordingly.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the Shanghai Metals Market research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.)

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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