Downstream demand remains weak; nickel intermediate product prices diverge
This week, the MHP market supply-demand pattern remained relatively loose, with nickel and cobalt payables staying weak. On the supply side, after sulphur replenishment, some producers resumed MHP output, while some traders released inventory, increasing market availability. Although some enterprises still cut production due to high raw material prices, overall market supply was relatively ample. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt and cobalt salt prices remained sluggish, cobalt sulphate production faced significant losses, and salt plants showed low acceptance of high-priced MHP, with MHP payables continuing to decline recently. With ample spot supply and cautious downstream purchasing, MHP payables are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
The high-grade nickel matte market continued to see weak supply and demand. Currently, high-grade nickel matte holds a clear economic advantage over MHP, but on the supply side, mainstream suppliers have completed long-term order signing, leaving limited available spot cargo. On the demand side, constrained by downstream production line compatibility, actual consumption capacity is insufficient, and the economic advantage has yet to translate into purchasing growth. Overall, market purchasing sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and high-grade nickel matte payables remained stable.
This week, sulphur prices (CIF Indonesia) fell to $950–1,030/mt, averaging $990/mt, down $15/mt from last Friday's average of $1,005/mt. MHP producers faced cost pressure, and resistance to high-priced sulphur persisted, with prices edging lower amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. On the news front, the US and Iran held diplomatic contact in New York, covering topics such as maritime blockades, frozen assets, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of related negotiations and whether the lifting of maritime blockades will have a tangible impact on Middle East sulphur supply and transportation. Sulphur prices are expected to consolidate at highs next week, and raw material cost pressure on MHP producers is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term.
On nickel prices, nickel prices rebounded this week, mainly supported by news of nickel pig iron production cuts in Indonesia and some bears exiting positions ahead of the holiday. The weakening of MHP nickel payables offset the support from the nickel price rebound, and its nickel price still declined; high-grade nickel matte payables remained stable, and its nickel price rebounded along with nickel prices. In addition, affected by the continued decline in cobalt payables, MHP cobalt prices fell sharply. Overall, the nickel price rebound has not yet reversed the cautious downstream purchasing situation, and the intermediate product market will remain under pressure in the short term.
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