[SMM Analysis] Ternary Power Battery Market Expected to See Modest Staged Recovery after the National Day Holiday

This week, ternary material prices fluctuated within a narrow range while remaining weak. On the raw material side, nickel sulfate prices weakened slightly, cobalt sulfate prices held steady for now, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices rebounded early in the week, though with limited momentum, and fell back again on Thursday, dragging the price center of ternary materials modestly lower.

In terms of transactions, with the National Day holiday approaching, some producers had already completed order signing and restocking over the past two weeks and are now in the delivery stage; other producers made small-batch restocking purchases ahead of the holiday. Overall, procurement remained need-based.

On the demand side, demand in the power battery market remained weak throughout September, with cathode makers mainly consuming existing inventories and showing low enthusiasm for production and raw material purchasing. Power battery demand is expected to see a modest staged recovery after the National Day holiday in October; however, looking at the fourth quarter as a whole, a clear recovery in ternary material demand is unlikely, and demand will still fall short of the peak levels seen in the second and third quarters.

In terms of the overseas market, the possibility that export controls on lithium batteries may be reinstated has driven some orders forward in recent months, and overseas orders performed well in September. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in the detailed rules of the export control policy; if the policy is postponed again, overseas orders—already at ample levels from the front-loading—face the risk of volume reductions.

In the consumer electronics market, new projects for some ultra-high-nickel 9-series materials have performed well in recent months, while old projects for conventional 5- and 6-series materials (568 series) remained relatively flat overall.