[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Pre-holiday demand support, PV prices stabilize

SMM, September 24:

Solar Cell

Prices: Solar cell prices held steady across all sizes today. The 210R range remained stable at 0.305-0.314 yuan/W, with solar cell plants keeping quote centers at 0.31-0.32 yuan/W; the 183 range held at 0.298-0.301 yuan/W; and the 210N range stayed flat at 0.288-0.295 yuan/W. Solar cell plant quotes were broadly stable, downstream module makers mainly made just-in-time procurement, and upstream-downstream negotiations remained in a standoff. With the National Day holiday approaching, pre-holiday stockpiling demand provided some support to the solar cell market. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with attention later on how end-use demand holds up after pre-holiday stockpiling fades.

Production: Actual September production is expected to be revised further downward from earlier production schedule expectations, remaining below August levels overall. The reduction came mainly from two sources: integrated enterprises proactively cut production due to earlier pessimistic expectations for September demand; some specialized enterprises began halting production for production line technological transformation. Supply contraction was larger than previously expected.

Inventory: Solar cell inventory continued to pull back this week. 210R inventory stayed tight at producers due to export orders; 210N destocking progressed well on sustained pre-holiday stockpiling demand; 183 end-use demand was mediocre, with a relatively slower pace of destocking. Inventory drew down with pre-holiday stockpiling support, but attention is needed on whether inventory buildup pressure re-emerges after the holiday ends.

Module

Prices: China's distributed module prices remained stable this week. Supported by costs, mainstream power quotes were largely unchanged, and with distributed demand declining month by month, enterprises shifted their shipment focus to the centralized market. On the centralized side, several projects opened bids recently, with prices showing divergence. Some enterprises targeting shipments submitted lower bid prices, while those aiming to secure costs and profits mostly held prices at high levels. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.7085 yuan/W, 0.718 yuan/W, and 0.723 yuan/W respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules were quoted at 0.696 yuan/W, 0.707 yuan/W, and 0.702 yuan/W respectively.

Production: Domestic supply began to increase somewhat this week, as centralized delivery volumes rose and export orders grew. Enterprises focused mainly on production for delivery.

Inventory: Domestic module inventory maintained a downward trend this week. It is expected that module inventory levels may decline further as delivery volumes continue to increase.

PV Film

Prices:

PV-grade EVA: Current mainstream spot transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin are at 10,900-11,000 yuan/mt. Resin prices rose somewhat, and this week leading petrochemical enterprises raised their settlement prices to 10,900 yuan/mt. Ethylene and vinyl acetate prices remained at relatively high levels, keeping cost support for EVA resin production strong. On the supply side, spot resources in the market were relatively tight, and traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, further supporting spot prices. Overall, PV-grade EVA prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term.

PV film: Current prices for 420g transparent EVA film are 5.63-5.71 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film are 5.47-5.55 yuan/m². Film prices have not been adjusted recently. In the upcoming month-end price negotiations, film producers still intend to raise prices further, but whether this round of increases can be implemented smoothly still depends on module makers' acceptance. In the short term, rising resin prices support film cost side, with focus later on month-end negotiation results and module makers' actual acceptance of price increases.

Production: Some previously maintenance-idled units resumed production this week, and PV-grade EVA production rebounded somewhat; film production schedules in September fluctuated little MoM from August.

Inventory: Petrochemical plant inventories are currently at low levels, and film producers' inventories remain within a reasonable range.

PV Glass

Prices:

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², with glass prices stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², with glass prices stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 9.7-10.5 yuan/m². Glass enterprises kept quotes largely stable before the holiday, with their focus currently on negotiations and bargaining over October glass quotes. Module demand has risen somewhat recently, but cost factors are restraining glass price increases. Prices are expected to remain in negotiation in the short term, though signals of prices stopping falling are relatively strong.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 10.7-11.5 yuan/m², with glass prices stable.

Production: No new furnaces entered cold repair in China this week, but previously production-cut furnaces reduced domestic supply somewhat. For October production schedules, despite more production days, production is still expected to decline.

Inventory: Domestic glass inventory levels edged down slightly this week, as some enterprises made post-settlement purchases, with orders increasing somewhat.