【Flash | Mongolia’s Molybdenum Output Slips in August, YTD Supply Still Up 9.2%】

A newly disclosed lawsuit filed by BHP Group’s wholly owned Spence copper-molybdenum mine estimates that stoppages on June 30–July 1 and July 7–8 cut contained-molybdenum output by 2 metric tonnes. The company also claims losses of 400 metric tonnes of copper cathode and 167 metric tonnes of contained copper in concentrate. Using July molybdenum sales of 74.76 metric tonnes and revenue of 5.48 million United States dollars, Spence derived an average price of 33.24 dollars per pound and valued the lost molybdenum at about 146,545 dollars. This is a newly quantified historical loss, not a new October shutdown; the figures remain allegations in a lawsuit and have not been adjudicated.

[SMM Analysis] Post-Holiday Restocking Drives Phase of Stainless Steel Social Inventory Destocking SMM, October 15: This week, stainless steel social inventory reversed its holiday accumulation trend and shifted to destocking overall. Combined inventory at the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan fell from 951,700 mt on October 8, 2026, to 920,900 mt, down 3.24% WoW. Inventory pressure built up during the holiday was released in a concentrated manner, with total inventory largely pulling back to pre-holiday levels. This week's stainless steel market inventory destocking was mainly driven by the phased, concentrated realization of post-holiday restocking demand. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, end-use activity stalled, downstream stocking willingness before the holiday was insufficient, and social inventory continued to accumulate during the holiday period. After the holidays ended, downstream purchasing and restocking demand was released in a concentrated manner, driving rapid destocking of accumulated inventory and easing social inventory pressure. This week showed clear characteristics of concentrated post-holiday destocking. However, it should be noted that this round of destocking was primarily driven by concentrated post-holiday essential restocking rather than a substantive recovery in end-use demand. As restocking demand was gradually fulfilled during the week, market transactions returned to sluggishness, and destocking momentum marginally weakened. Meanwhile, stainless steel prices have continued to decline recently, market confidence is insufficient, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, purchasing is mainly as needed, and substantive end-use recovery remains weak. On the supply side, although October stainless steel production schedules declined further and expectations for steel mill production cuts continued to build, under the current pattern of persistently weak demand, the pace of supply contraction is not enough to fully offset the demand gap, and social inventory still faces accumulation pressure. Overall, the concentrated release of post-holiday restocking demand...

Centinela Concentrates produced 900 metric tonnes of contained molybdenum in the third quarter of 2026, up 12.5% from the preceding quarter, although nine-month output remained 11.5% lower year on year at 2,300 metric tonnes. Molybdenum grade increased to 0.016% from 0.014%, while recovery rose to 79.1% from 76.8%. Molybdenum sales increased 14.3% to 800 metric tonnes, despite a 4.7% decline in copper-in-concentrate output. The figures predate the post-quarter strike involving unions representing about 20% of directly employed workers, and no molybdenum loss has been quantified. Production is on a 100% mine basis, not Antofagasta’s 70% attributable share or physical concentrate mass.