SMM, September 22:
Intraday, the most-traded SHFE lead 2611 contract opened at 16,450 yuan/mt, drifted higher in the morning to hit an intraday high of 16,480 yuan/mt, then met resistance and pulled back. In the afternoon, it briefly dipped to the 16,400 yuan/mt level before stabilizing near the close, eventually settling at 16,430 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt or 0.09% from the previous trading day's closing price. The contract traded in a range of 16,385–16,480 yuan/mt throughout the day, with volume at 70,722 lots and open interest at 74,072 lots. The daily candlestick formed a small bullish candle with upper and lower shadows. On the technical front, the daily KDJ's J value rose to 111, remaining in overbought territory. Spot fundamentals largely continued the previous day's pattern: downstream enterprises mostly stayed on the sidelines, while suppliers actively quoted and sold, and the scarcity of spot lead eased slightly. In the short term, the SHFE lead 2611 contract is expected to consolidate at highs above the 16,000 yuan/mt level. With the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday approaching, capital may turn more cautious. Attention should be paid to whether the futures price can break above the upper Bollinger Band on expanding volume, as well as downstream battery enterprises' purchasing activity once spot premiums loosen.
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