Inventory drawdowns combined with pre-holiday stockpiling pushed spot premiums higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,683.5/mt. In early trading, copper prices shot up to a high of $14,774/mt, then drifted lower to $14,632.5/mt. Prices subsequently moved sideways in a narrow range and eventually settled at $14,664.5/mt, up 0.7%. Trading volume reached 21,700 lots, and open interest stood at 267,000 lots, up 2,264 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish positioning. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract gapped up to 111,380 yuan/mt at the open, then drifted lower to a low of 110,510 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently moved sideways in a narrow range and eventually settled at 110,709 yuan/mt, up 0.67%. Trading volume reached 31,600 lots, and open interest stood at 148,000 lots, up 340 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish positioning.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Data released by the customs statistics online query platform showed that China's copper ore and concentrate imports in August 2026 totaled 2,508,014.24 mt, up 5.44% MoM but down 9.50% YoY. China imported 826,006.05 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Chile in August, up 26.22% MoM but down 14.20% YoY. China imported 528,792.79 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Peru in August, down 4.40% MoM and down 6.22% YoY. On the export side, China's copper ore and concentrate exports in August 2026 totaled 1.39 mt, up 12.42% MoM and up 4,706.90% YoY. China exported 0.51 mt of copper ore and concentrates to the UK in August, down 1.73% MoM but up 5,020.00% YoY. China exported 0.34 mt of copper ore and concentrates to the Netherlands in August, up 9.48% MoM.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 21, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at premiums of 750-900 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 825 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2610 contract shot up before consolidating lower. After the open, prices rallied quickly, reaching a high of around 110,180 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to around 109,940 yuan/mt. Copper prices subsequently rebounded, consolidating around the 110,000 yuan/mt level, before weakening again toward midday, with the morning session closing at 109,960 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the current and next month contracts stood at 400-470 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 1,280 yuan/mt to a loss of 1,130 yuan/mt. During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.45, up 0.14 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 3.67, up 0.13 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 43,900 mt, down 14,700 mt MoM; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 20,600 mt, down 200 mt MoM. Last Thursday and Friday saw relatively strong market transactions, with downstream processing enterprises picking up goods normally, while limited inbound supply replenishment drove a notable decline in Shanghai inventory. Available cargoes in the market remained persistently tight. Although some imported copper arrived gradually, most of it flowed directly to downstream processing enterprises and did not enter warehouse statistics. Meanwhile, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, some downstream enterprises began pre-holiday stockpiling, further boosting spot purchasing demand. Overall, supported by low inventory, tight availability of cargoes, and pre-holiday restocking demand, spot premiums in Shanghai are expected to edge up slightly today.
(2) Guangdong: On September 21, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 900 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 700 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 640 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 110,775 yuan/mt, up 520 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 110,615 yuan/mt, up 520 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The purchase sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.65, up 0.04 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment was 2.68, down 0.02 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, available supply in the market was relatively tight, suppliers held firm on high premiums, and spot trades were quiet.
(3) Imported copper: On September 21, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $119/mt (price range: $114-124/mt); the average B/L price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $113/mt (price range: $106-120/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $10/mt from the previous trading day to $55/mt (price range: $50-60/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from September to mid-to-late October.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 21 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 109,960 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 825 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices rose 300 yuan/mt WoW today. The selling sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials was flat at 2.71, while the purchase sentiment index fell to 1.89. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,141 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,090 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, due to policy changes and the approaching long holiday, many secondary copper rod enterprises needed to begin raw material stockpiling. However, with copper prices breaking above 110,000 yuan again, scrap utilization enterprises had to purchase cautiously, preferring to wait for copper prices to pull back slightly before starting raw material stockpiling.
Prices: On the macro front, US Fed officials released hawkish signals, saying rates would need to rise if inflation does not pull back. In the Middle East, Iran will sell a seized US vessel for compensation, an oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the US plans to allocate $5 billion to rebuild Middle East energy facilities, Libya's pipeline closure caused production to plunge, Iran's foreign minister arrived in New York, and the UK agreed to provide air-to-air refueling for Saudi Arabia. Domestically, Xi Jinping will visit the US from September 23 to 25. The pullback in crude oil eased inflation pressure, and with the holiday approaching, expectations for pre-holiday stockpiling increased, demand recovered slightly, and inventories continued to decline, overall providing bullish support for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, available supply remained tight on the day, Shanghai inventories destocked sharply, imported supply replenishment was limited, and the overall supply remained tight. On the demand side, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling demand was released, purchase sentiment rebounded notably, purchase willingness strengthened, and overall transactions performed well. On the inventory front, as of Monday, September 21, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China fell 14,500 mt WoW to 74,800 mt, with total inventories down 65,300 mt from 140,100 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to move sideways with an upward bias today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to SMM]