National copper inventories continue to decline; pre-holiday stockpiling supports demand recovery [SMM Weekly Data]

SMM, September 21:

Data summary: As of Monday, September 21, SMM copper inventories across mainstream regions in China fell 14,500 mt WoW to 74,800 mt, down 65,300 mt from 140,100 mt in the same period last year.

By region, warehouses in Shanghai saw limited arrivals and steady cargo pick-up, with inventory destocking continuing; Jiangsu saw basically flat inflows and outflows, with limited inventory changes; Guangdong saw increased arrivals coupled with weak consumption, resulting in inventory buildup.

Looking ahead, on the supply side, domestic supply increased while import arrivals were limited; on the demand side, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday approaching, downstream users began pre-holiday stockpiling, with demand recovering marginally. A survey showed that the operating rate of copper cathode rod producers is expected to increase to 68.12% this week, up 2.3 percentage points WoW. Overall, spot supply remained stable while end-user purchasing recovered, and national social inventory of copper cathode is expected to continue destocking slightly this week.