Published: 20 Sep 2026, 17:00 BST
Gold Price has recovered towards $4,380, but UniCredit expects higher rates to restrain gains even as central banks and investors support demand.
The gold price (XAU/USD) ended Friday near $4,380 an ounce, close to the lower end of UniCredit's revised $4,300-$5,000 forecast range for end-2026.
Bullion gained 0.75% over the week but remained 2.92% lower over the past month, reflecting the uneven recovery from September's lows.
UniCredit retains a neutral to slightly constructive outlook, with higher interest rates limiting how far demand from central banks and investors can lift prices.
Its upper forecast boundary sits roughly 14% above Friday's close, although the bank expects only a modest upward bias.
Why the cause of rising yields matters
The Federal Reserve's quarter-point increase to 3.75%-4.00% sharpened competition from interest-bearing assets and helped drive the Dollar higher against the Euro.
Gold pays no interest, so rising yields increase the income investors forgo by holding it.
UniCredit nevertheless argues that higher long-term yields have different implications depending on what drives them.
A steeper yield curve caused by stronger growth and higher expected equilibrium interest rates would typically weigh on gold.
"However, a steepening driven by fiscal deficits, debt-sustainability concerns and higher term premia can be supportive, particularly if it weakens confidence in the US dollar."
We think this leaves confidence in government finances central to the forecast, alongside the direction of interest rates.
Gold remains only 1.42% higher since the start of 2026 after retreating from its January peak near $5,594.
Even the upper end of UniCredit's December range would leave bullion below that peak, allowing for a recovery without assuming a return to this year's highs.
The bank also sees several sources of continuing demand:
"Sustained central-bank purchases, recovering ETF inflows, portfolio-diversification demand and concerns about preserving purchasing power amid large fiscal deficits and rising public debt continue to provide support."
