[SMM PV Morning Meeting Summary] Polysilicon expectations for production cuts support prices, module prices diverge, crucible loosens

SMM, September 21:

Silicon metal:

Prices: Last week, oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China stood at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt. In mid-month, affected by expectations of weakening Q4 polysilicon demand, market sentiment for far-month contracts was weak. At the current stage, silicon metal fundamentals in September showed a structure of supply falling MoM, demand growth, and inventory destocking. As the most-traded silicon metal contract fell to around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt, cost support and buying interest below futures prices strengthened, and prices shifted to consolidation.

Production: In September, operating rates varied among silicon enterprises. In mid-September, some silicon enterprises in north-west China mainly increased operations, and the industry operating rate rose from early September but remained lower than end-August.

Inventory:

- Social inventory: SMM data showed that as of September 17, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions stood at 486,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon:

Prices: Over the weekend, mainstream producers' expected price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 39.1-42.7 yuan/kg. Weekend transactions remained quite limited. Production cuts are highly expected to be implemented in October, and polysilicon producers showed a stronger intention to hold quotes firm. Downstream remained resistant to high-priced resources due to price declines.

Production: In September, multiple bases may resume production, and production will continue to increase. In October, affected by meetings and the onset of the dry season, polysilicon production may decline.

Inventory: Market transactions are currently extremely limited, with almost no new orders signed, and polysilicon inventory has risen somewhat. Some participants are trading warrants.

Modules:

Prices: Last week, domestic module prices diverged. 183 modules remained stable temporarily due to incoming export orders, while 210R and 210N module prices edged down, though mostly within ranges. The actual transaction center changed little. With cost support for 210R strengthening recently, subsequent prices are expected to remain mostly stable and consolidate. Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.7085 yuan/W, 0.718 yuan/W, and 0.723 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.696 yuan/W, 0.707 yuan/W, and 0.703 yuan/W, respectively.

Production: Recently, domestic operating rates remained basically stable. October production schedules are expected to diverge. On one hand, enterprises in China and overseas began to require delivery of earlier projects; on the other hand, new export orders are also planned to flow in. For enterprises with limited overseas business, the impact on operating rates is expected to be relatively small.

Inventory: Last week, domestic module inventory continued to decline. Module prices were temporarily stable, and downstream made some restocking purchases as needed. Centralized projects remained the main factor driving inventory down.

High-purity quartz sand:

Prices: Currently, domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand prices are 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 50,000-53,000 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 5,500-5,700 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 6,500-6,600 yuan/piece. Recently, crucible transaction centers have slipped somewhat, and some enterprises lowered prices to sell at discounts. Last weekend, prices at a few domestic crucible plants already declined.

Production: Recently, quartz sand production remained basically stable. Demand side edged up WoW, but due to enterprise inventory, production changed little.

Inventory: Recently, domestic imported sand inventory remained high. For domestic sand, production has declined slightly recently, but overall inventory levels remained high.

PV glass:

Prices:

- 3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², stable.

- 3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², stable.

- 2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 9.7-10.5 yuan/m². As September month-end approaches, month-end settlements will begin, and a new round of negotiations will start. Glass prices are expected to consolidate. Top-tier players still plan to raise prices, but module makers' acceptance has declined, and price negotiations will dominate.

- 2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 10.7-11.5 yuan/m², stable.

Production: Last week, another 1,200 mt/day furnace in China underwent cold repair, and domestic operating capacity continued to decline, with supply also beginning to fall.

Inventory: Last week, days of PV glass inventory in China declined by a relatively small margin. Mid-month shipments began to decline, and downstream module makers' production schedules have not been fully finalized, so purchasing turned cautious.