SHFE tin closed at 408,770 yuan in the night session, up 0.84%; the 410,000 yuan/mt threshold awaits validation [SMM Tin Morning Update]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin closed at 408,770 in night session, up 0.84%; the 410,000 yuan/mt level awaits confirmation — Monday, September 21, 2026

[Futures] Overnight LME tin settled at $53,460/mt (+460, +0.87% vs. prior settlement of 53,000), touching a weekly high of 53,820 and a low of 51,210, with a weekly cumulative gain of +0.49% and a weekly average price of $52,615; the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 408,770 yuan/mt in the September 18 night session (+3,410, +0.84%), opening at 407,490, with a high of 409,510 and a low of 406,400. Night session volume was 42,381 lots and open interest stood at 27,267 lots (down 641 lots on the day). The top 7 longs and shorts on the leaderboard reduced positions by 1,931 and 1,782 lots, respectively — shorts cut positions by less than longs, with bears driving the market on a strong note.

[Macro] The US Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on September 17, with the negative news now priced in. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.041%, the highest since July 2007, and the US dollar index climbed above the 100 mark. On September 18, Saudi Arabia proposed a two-week ceasefire to the Houthis via Oman, sending WTI back below $100 as the geopolitical premium unwound and risk appetite staged a phased recovery.

[Fundamentals] LME tin inventory stood at 4,855 mt (-110), with cancelled warrants at 1,130 mt, a relatively high 23.27% share, indicating tight spot supply outside China. SHFE inventory fell for a consecutive period to 4,979 mt (-242). Production resumptions at Wa State in Myanmar reached 40-50%, and Indonesia's Timah exported 4,564 mt in August (+52% MoM), keeping the ore market in a tight balance. The July solder operating rate of 72.8% was on the low side for the same period over the past five years, with the September peak season delivering weaker-than-expected results and downstream users mainly making just-in-time procurement. On September 17, the US issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling of 136.52% on Chinese tinplate, marginally tightening export expectations for the longer term.

[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate on a strong note within the 405,000-410,000 yuan/mt range today, with attention on whether prices can hold above 410,000 and on changes in China's social inventory.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]