[SMM Analysis] China's Cobalt Metal Imports Fell 4% MoM, Exports Rose 55% MoM in August 2026

Imports: Import Window Firmly Shut; 1,000-mt Level Sustained by Long-Term Contracts

China's cobalt metal imports stood at around 1,011 mt in August 2026, down 4% MoM but up 134% YoY. By origin, the top three sources were Russia, Indonesia, and Madagascar, with imports of 325 mt, 321 mt, and 51 mt respectively. Imports from Russia increased 20% MoM, while all material from Indonesia entered via Zhejiang ports as bonded logistics goods.

By trade mode, imports in the form of logistics goods under customs special supervision were about 591 mt in August, accounting for 58.4%, a notable pullback from 75.4% in July; imports under general trade were about 420 mt, with their share rising to 41.6%. The inflow into the bonded "reservoir" slowed, while the share of material cleared into domestic circulation increased.

China's cobalt metal prices continued to fall sharply in August, with the SMM low-end price dropping from 338,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month to 300,000 yuan/mt at month-end, a decline of about 11% within the month. Over the same period, the low-end price of cobalt metal in Rotterdam warehouses fell from 25.35/lb to 24.6/lb, a relatively limited decline. The domestic-overseas price spread widened further, and the theoretical import loss for cobalt metal expanded from about 98,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month to about 130,000 yuan/mt by mid-month, leaving the import window firmly shut. However, as some brands of cobalt metal are tied to long-term contracts or operational requirements and still need to be shipped to China, imports held above 1,000 mt for a second consecutive month. The YoY doubling was mainly attributable to the low base of 431 mt in August 2025, when the DRC export ban was roiling the market.

In terms of average import price, China's cobalt metal import average price was $51,752/mt in August 2026, down 12.72% MoM. Cumulative imports in January-August 2026 totaled 9,775 mt, up 115% YoY.

Exports: Export Window Opening Materializes; Exports Rose 55% MoM

On the export side, China's cobalt metal exports were around 486 mt in August 2026, up 55% MoM and up 18% YoY. By destination, the top three were the Netherlands, the US, and India, with exports of 176 mt, 130 mt, and 51 mt respectively. Exports to the Netherlands increased 112% MoM, those to the US rose 83% MoM, and exports to India marked the highest monthly level of the year. The material mainly flowed out through Shanghai ports.

By trade mode, exports in August remained dominated by bonded transit, with about 461 mt exported as logistics goods under customs special supervision, accounting for around 95%. The sharp rebound in August exports was mainly driven by the theoretical export profit for cobalt metal, which had turned positive and kept widening since late July, once reaching about 28,000 yuan/mt in mid-August. The opening of the export window accelerated the outflow of bonded material, and previously suppressed re-export demand was concentratedly realized.

In terms of average export price, China's cobalt metal export average price was $54,499/mt in August 2026, down 3.55% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-August 2026 totaled 3,462 mt, down 73% YoY.

Outlook: Imports to Rely on Long-Term Contract Support; Export Momentum Expected to Continue

Entering September, domestic cobalt metal prices continued to probe lower from already low levels. As of September 18, the SMM low-end price had fallen to 275,000 yuan/mt, while the overseas Rotterdam low-end price dropped to $23/lb, widening the domestic-overseas spread further: the theoretical import loss has expanded to about 140,000 yuan/mt, with no sign of the import window reopening in the near term. September imports are expected to remain sustained by long-term contracts and bonded material. The theoretical export profit, though volatile, remains in positive territory at about 13,000-23,000 yuan/mt in mid-September, keeping the export window open, and September exports are expected to hold at relatively high levels.