[SMM Analysis] China's Cobalt Hydrometallurgical Intermediate Product Imports Fell 51% MoM in August 2026

Imports: Typhoons Disrupted Arrival Schedules, Bonded Cargoes Shrank Markedly

Of the intermediate products imported from the DRC this month, about 3,682 physical mt entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces as logistics goods under customs special supervision, accounting for 46.8% of China's total imports; general trade accounted for about 3,913 physical mt, or 49.7%; and processing trade with imported materials accounted for about 179 physical mt, or 2.3%. In addition, China imported a combined 101 physical mt of intermediate products from South Africa, Vietnam, and Zambia under general trade this month. Structurally, the decline in imports was mainly driven by shrinking bonded logistics cargoes: bonded imports in August fell about 63% from 10,046 physical mt in July, with their share retreating from 62.9% to 46.8%. General trade imports, by contrast, held largely flat MoM at around 3,900 physical mt, indicating that smelters' restocking for rigid demand continued, while willingness to build and hold bonded inventories cooled noticeably.

Two main factors drove the import decline this month. First, typhoons disrupted arrival schedules. In August, Typhoon Dolphin made landfall in Zhejiang twice, and Typhoon Saudel successively affected the East China coast, closing multiple ports for over a week. Vessel loading and discharge plans were thrown into disarray, and some cargoes originally scheduled to arrive in August were delayed to September. Second, cobalt salt prices kept falling from August, dampening smelters' willingness to purchase feedstock. Miners found it difficult to conclude new tenders, and some chose to keep cargoes in storage overseas, waiting for demand to recover before shipping. In addition, the 50% YoY increase in imports this month mainly stemmed from a low base last year—in August 2025, affected by the DRC's export policy, imports were only 5,241 physical mt, and current import volumes have yet to return to normal-year levels.

Prices: Cobalt Salt Prices Probed Lower, Intermediate Product Payability Coefficients Dropped Sharply

On the price front, domestic cobalt salt and intermediate product prices fell in tandem in August. The low-end price of cobalt sulfate declined from about 80,000 yuan/mt at the start of the month to about 70,000 yuan/mt at month-end, a drop of around 12.5% within the month; the low-end price of cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) fell from 21.5/lb at the start of the month to 18/lb at month-end. More noteworthy was the change in payability coefficients: the low-end payability coefficient of cobalt intermediate product feedstock (against the SMM cobalt sulfate average price) plunged from around 87% in mid-August to about 70% in late August. Amid falling cobalt salt prices and cost inversion pressure, smelters sharply lowered their feedstock purchasing coefficients, widening the price divergence between buyers and sellers—this was also the underlying reason why miners struggled to conclude tenders and opted to stockpile cargoes overseas. In terms of average import prices, China's cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediate product import average price was $15,495/physical mt in August 2026, down 13.51% MoM. Cumulative imports in January–August 2026 totaled 44,792 physical mt, down 84% YoY on a cumulative basis.

Outlook: Growth Drivers and Constraints at Odds, September Arrival Heights Remain Uncertain

Looking ahead, China's intermediate product imports in September carry some expectation of an increase, but the actual height of arrivals will depend on the tug-of-war between supply and demand. On the growth side, first, actual shipments from the DRC have run high. According to DRC CTCPM data, the DRC exported 41,100 mt of cobalt in metal content in H1 2026, of which June alone accounted for about 11,800 mt, up 92.9% MoM and representing 48.9% of Q2 exports. As the voyage from Durban to China typically takes about two months, the cargoes shipped intensively in June will gradually materialize as arrivals in September and beyond. Second, sailings delayed by typhoons in August will be concentrated into September. On the constraint side, cobalt salt prices have yet to bottom out, smelters' feedstock purchasing willingness remains low, and miners' tenders continue to struggle. If the price divergence between buyers and sellers persists, some miners may still choose to keep cargoes in overseas storage and postpone shipments. Overall, China's cobalt intermediate product imports may rebound in September, but the extent of the rebound remains uncertain.