Market supply tight, downstream just-in-time procurement, spot premiums remain firm [SMM Yangshan spot copper]

On September 18, the average warrant price rose by $3/mt from the previous trading day to $124/mt (price range: $118-130/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $116/mt (price range: $112-120/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $65/mt (price range: $60-70/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from September to mid-to-late October.

The SHFE/LME price ratio weakened today, and LME near-month contracts shifted back into a backwardation structure. However, with month-end and the holiday approaching, along with persistent port congestion in China, market supply remained tight while downstream demand stayed firm. Inquiries for registered warrants were particularly active, giving suppliers strong motivation to hold prices firm. It was heard that mainstream quotations for registered ER B/L arriving from late September to October were around $110-120/mt yesterday; today, mainstream transactions for registered ER warrants were heard at $120-130/mt, with mainstream offers at $130-140/mt; mainstream quotations for EQ copper arriving from late September to early October were at $60-75/mt, and for EQ copper arriving in mid-to-late October at $70-80/mt.