China zinc ingot inventory destocking, SHFE zinc center moves up [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

SMM, September 18:

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,799/mt, then climbed steadily after the open, dipping to $3,777/mt in early trading before touching a high of $3,903.5/mt near the end of the session, ultimately closing up at $3,881.5/mt, up $71/mt, or 1.86%. Trading volume increased to 14,030 lots, while open interest fell by 5,079 lots to 262,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with the 10-day moving average above acting as resistance. With the rate hike now delivered, macro sentiment has largely been released. On the fundamentals side, although LME zinc ingot inventory accumulated, it remains at a relatively low level, and the LME zinc backwardation structure is still steep. LME zinc rebounded from lows and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 26,500 yuan/mt. After the open, SHFE zinc continued to consolidate at highs, touching a high of 26,680 yuan/mt in early trading and dipping to 26,480 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately closing up at 26,590 yuan/mt, up 310 yuan/mt, or 1.18%. Trading volume increased to 74,263 lots, while open interest rose by 3,522 lots to 127,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with the 10-day moving average below providing support. Boosted by strength in the LME market, SHFE zinc also rose in the night session. Additionally, with the National Day holiday approaching, downstream enterprises in China have been actively stockpiling recently, and domestic zinc ingot inventory has been drawn down accordingly, supporting the upward shift in SHFE zinc's price center.

Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.