Price spread between futures contracts widens, spot premiums surge after delivery, expected to remain high next week [SMM South China copper cathode spot weekly review]

September 17, 2026 news:

Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region showed a bottoming-out trend. At the beginning of the week, due to a large price spread between futures contracts and the approaching delivery date, spot premiums turned into discounts. After delivery was completed, spot premiums rose sharply, and with the continuous tightening of available supply in the market, premiums kept climbing. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 700 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 550 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from last Thursday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 490 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 0 yuan/mt, a relatively small spread that did not trigger inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 7,200 mt, down 800 mt from last Thursday, with warrants totaling 325 mt, down 451 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: This week, warehouse arrivals were 11,200 mt/week, down 2,700 mt/week WoW, far below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Production cuts at smelters around Guangdong and low arrivals of imported copper were the main reasons. Warehouse withdrawals were 13,300 mt/week, down 372 mt WoW, slightly above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Consumption was subdued at the start of the week due to contract rollover, and downstream consumption gradually improved after the rollover.

Looking ahead to next week, it is reported that arrivals of both domestic copper cathode and imported copper will remain low next week, and total supply is expected to stay at low levels, while downstream consumption is expected to be better than this week. Therefore, Guangdong inventory will continue to decline next week, and spot premiums will move higher.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.)