After the FOMC announcement in the early morning, silver futures consolidated with moderate trading volume [SMM Daily Review]

Today, SMM's 10:00 a.m. price for SGE Ag (T+D) was 15,480 yuan/kg, with the premium/discount range quoted at parity to +10 yuan/kg against TD, and the weighted average price was 2.47 yuan/kg. The premium/discount range was unchanged from the previous trading day.

On the macro front, the US Fed's September FOMC meeting concluded overnight, with a unanimous vote to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike in more than three years since July 2023. The latest dot plot showed that most officials expect one more rate hike within the year, with a clearly hawkish tilt. Fed Chairman Warsh maintained a hawkish tone at the post-meeting press conference, stressing that inflation remains too high and has persisted for too long, while noting that current financial conditions can hardly be described as restrictive. He reiterated that no mechanical forward guidance would be provided, and policy would be flexibly adjusted based on real-time data. After the decision, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields both rose, putting pressure on the financial side of precious metals. Silver retreated after a rapid rise in the night session, with amplified volatility. The market had largely priced in this rate hike, but Warsh's remarks and the dot plot's signal of "possibly another hike within the year" exceeded some expectations, further cooling near-term rate cut expectations. In the short term, silver is under pressure from high interest rate expectations, and the risk of intensified volatility warrants caution. Going forward, focus will be on US inflation and employment data to verify the policy path.

In the spot market, morning quotes in Shanghai remained concentrated at a discount of 25-20 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract. The spot-futures price spread between SHFE and SGE T+D held at 25-30 yuan/kg. Suppliers' quotes were relatively firm, with overall quoted price spreads relatively small. As the holiday approached, some suppliers suspended shipments, and downstream buyers mostly purchased as needed, remaining cautious in taking delivery. After negotiations, most deals were concluded near the lower end of quotes. Overall, after the FOMC meeting concluded, silver futures showed mediocre performance. The market remains divided on the future policy path, entering a wait-and-see period following the news. Spot market trading was moderate. Today, the market's premium/discount quote against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract remained at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg, with deals concentrated in the SGE Ag (T+D) parity to slight premium range.