SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, September 17
Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,827/mt, then drifted higher to hit an intraday high of $3,866.5/mt. It subsequently pulled back from highs, dipping to $3,801.5/mt near the close, and finally settled down at $3,810.5/mt, down $21/mt or 0.55%. Trading volume decreased to 13,776 lots, and open interest fell by 27 lots to 267,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 26,155 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc dipped to 26,100 yuan/mt, then slowly drifted higher to hit an intraday high of 26,225 yuan/mt. It then stabilized at highs and consolidated, finally settling down at 26,185 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt or 0.44%. Trading volume decreased to 36,431 lots, and open interest rose by 92 lots to 126,000 lots.
Macro: The US Fed unanimously approved a 25 bp interest rate hike, and the dot plot showed one more hike this year. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates quickly to 1% or below, again threatening to "cut off trade." China and Japan both reduced their US Treasury holdings in July, while the UK increased its holdings significantly. US media reported that Apple is considering a return to the server market and will adopt Nvidia interconnect technology. Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking to restore half of the capacity of a key oil pipeline within days. CATL will respond soon to rumors that some automakers have chosen other suppliers.
Spot market:
Shanghai: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase willingness in Shanghai was 2.08, and selling willingness was 2.57. Due to invoice issues, zinc ingot circulation in the Shanghai market was relatively limited recently. Traders continued to hold prices firm for shipments, and spot premiums in Shanghai continued to rise yesterday. However, zinc prices on the futures market maintained a fluctuating trend. Downstream enterprises had completed more purchases via price fixing in the previous two days, so their purchase willingness weakened yesterday, and overall spot trades were mediocre.
Guangdong: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase willingness in Guangdong was 1.90, and selling willingness was 2.53. Meanwhile, the South China market switched to contract rollover quotes yesterday, with the reference contract shifting from the 2610 contract to the 2611 contract. In the spot market, zinc price centers edged up. Although trader quotes remained firm, wait-and-see sentiment grew among end-user factories, and purchases became more cautious.
Tianjin: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase willingness in Tianjin was 1.93, and selling willingness was 2.43. Futures edged up. Downstream enterprises had largely completed price-fixed stockpiling in the previous few days, so purchase willingness was not high yesterday. Traders held prices firm, and spot premiums edged up. Market transactions weakened compared with the previous day.
Ningbo: Yesterday morning, zinc prices on the futures market consolidated. Downstream enterprises had purchased more in the previous two days, so their buying interest weakened yesterday. Overall market shipments were mediocre, trader spot quotes were basically stable, and market premiums were flat from the previous day.
Social inventory: On September 16, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,450 mt to 112,675 mt, up 1.3%; according to SMM communication, as of September 14, China's inventory edged up.
Zinc price forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 20-day moving average above forming resistance. Recently, LME zinc ingot inventory has continued to accumulate, and the LME zinc 0-3 backwardation structure pulled back to $88.37/mt, easing structural risks. In addition, ahead of the US Fed's interest rate meeting, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend overall. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 60-day moving average above forming resistance. The LME zinc price trend continued to drag on the SHFE, and on the fundamentals side, production resumptions at Zhongjin Lingnan mines added supply growth, while downstream consumption overall showed no significant improvement. Zinc prices are expected to consolidate at lows in the short term.
Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.
![China mines resume production; SHFE zinc continues to consolidate at lows [SMM zinc morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ipTIN20251217171755.jpg)
