Alumina futures hover low with moving averages pressuring from bears; spot alumina edges down [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

9.16 Alumina Morning Comment

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract continued its low-level consolidation on a weak note, opening at 2,677 yuan/mt, reaching an intraday high of 2,693 yuan/mt and a low of 2,676 yuan/mt, before closing at 2,682 yuan/mt. The entire session saw a fluctuation range of just 17 yuan/mt, lacking momentum for a rebound. The daily candlestick formed a small bearish candlestick, indicating that overhead selling pressure remains evident and short-term stabilization momentum is insufficient. Trading volume continued to shrink, falling by 14,037 lots from the previous session to 46,823 lots, with market activity persistently declining as both bulls and bears turned cautious and adopted a wait-and-see stance. Open interest increased by 3,155 lots to 233,000 lots, with positions accumulating slightly during the sideways price movement, suggesting bears still retain some willingness to build positions and market divergence persists. From a technical perspective, the current closing price of 2,682 yuan/mt sits below the MA5 (2,687.76) and remains well below the MA10 (2,706.637), MA20 (2,724.42), and MA40 (2,734.31). The moving average system maintains a bearish alignment and diverges downward, with the medium-term suppression pattern showing no improvement. However, the deviation between price and MA5 has narrowed, and short-term moving average pressure has eased slightly. Overall, the futures market exhibits weak characteristics of "contracting volume consolidation, bearish moving average pressure, and a low-level hovering price center," with the short-term direction still unclear. Resistance above lies at the MA5 (2,687.76) and the psychological 2,700 yuan/mt level, while support below is seen at 2,670 yuan/mt and the previous low near 2,650 yuan/mt. Before volume can effectively expand and prices break above short-term moving average resistance, the market is expected to remain in low-level consolidation on a weak note.

Bauxite: As of September 15, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index stood at $72.1/mt, up $0.07/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 540 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 495 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 400 yuan/mt, unchanged; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 515 yuan/mt, unchanged; SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $67/mt, unchanged; SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $60.5/mt, unchanged; SMM Guinean bauxite FOB averaged $40/dmt, unchanged; SMM Guinean bauxite CIF averaged $71.5/mt, unchanged; Malaysian bauxite CIF averaged $52/mt, unchanged; Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) averaged $62.5/mt, unchanged; Ghanaian bauxite CIF averaged $78/mt, unchanged; Indonesian bauxite FOB averaged $37/mt in physical content, unchanged; bauxite CFR (Turkey) was priced at $72.5/dmt, unchanged; bauxite FOB (Pakistan) averaged $58.5/dmt, unchanged.

Spot alumina: On September 15, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,674.78 yuan/mt, down 0.43 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,676.67 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,698.11 yuan/mt, down 1.02 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,697.52 yuan/mt, down 0.22 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,707.47 yuan/mt, down 0.49 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,588.17 yuan/mt, down 0.88 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 15, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 3.22 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant daily: On September 15, total registered alumina warrants stood at 262,100 mt, up 3,905 mt from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 40,600 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 197,600 mt, up 3,905 mt from the previous trading day.

Markets outside China: As of September 15, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.73. Based on this, the price translates to approximately 2,986.3 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, 311.52 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: As of now, spot alumina prices have remained stable, with limited overall fluctuations. Transaction prices were mixed, but the midpoint showed no significant change. Futures prices pulled back slightly, resulting in some divergence between futures and spot trends. On the supply side, China's weekly alumina production continued to increase, mainly driven by an alumina enterprise in Shanxi fully resuming production, while operations in other regions remained stable with no notable changes. Outside China, bauxite supply issues in Indonesia may affect production going forward, but the impact remains unclear, and SMM will continue to monitor the situation. On the inventory side, total alumina inventory in China declined, with structural divergence: raw material inventory at aluminum smelters held at current levels with relatively small changes overall; finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up, mainly because the nationwide operating rate recovered somewhat, leading to some accumulation of finished products at plants; port inventory dropped sharply, mainly due to re-exports of bonded-zone cargo and the unloading of some shipments, with the sharp decline in port inventory driving overall inventory lower. Looking ahead, alumina prices are expected to remain stable; on the inventory side, port cargo re-exports and unloading will continue, but rising domestic production will provide an offset, with overall inventory expected to rebound slightly.

[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]