Wafer in the doldrums under pressure, solar cell structure diverges, film poised for price hike [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, September 15:

Wafer

prices: Market prices for 18X wafers were 1.023-1.037 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers 1.027-1.041 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers 1.113-1.127 yuan/piece. Overall wafer prices remained in the doldrums. Demand side, solar cell producers continued to purchase mainly on a need-to basis, market transactions were under pressure, and their ability to absorb wafer prices was weak. Overall, wafer prices still face some downward pressure in the short term, but after a certain pullback earlier, further downside room will depend on actual transactions and enterprise inventory changes.

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, September wafer production is expected to increase by 1-2 GW MoM, with market supply rebounding from earlier levels, while the supply-demand pattern has yet to improve significantly.

Inventory: Wafer inventory drawdown has slowed recently, and some enterprises still face shipment pressure.

Solar cell

prices: Today, 183 and 210N cell prices were largely stable, while 210R edged up. The 210R price range moved up slightly to 0.299-0.308 Yuan/W, with actual domestic transactions at 0.31 Yuan/W; the 183 price range held steady at 0.298-0.301 Yuan/W; the 210N price range remained at 0.285-0.292 Yuan/W. The current price stabilization stemmed mainly from export orders supporting certain specifications and low willingness to sell at discounts among top-tier producers, while domestic end-use demand had yet to pick up materially. The market tug-of-war persisted, and short-term prices were likely to remain rangebound and largely stable.

Production: In September, the industry's overall production schedule pulled back slightly, with production changes showing clear structural divergence. Some specialized solar cell plants brought previously upgraded lines into production, achieving a slight production ramp-up; meanwhile, some mainstream solar cell plants reduced monthly output due to maintenance. Integrated producers, affected by weak end-use demand, cut production by more than the growth from specialized plants, leaving total industry supply slightly lower in September after offsetting.

Inventory: This week, solar cell inventory continued to accumulate at high levels, with clear divergence across specifications. 183 cells faced greater inventory accumulation pressure due to weakening demand in China and overseas; 210N high-efficiency cells saw decent orders, but mid- and low-efficiency orders were mediocre, resulting in structural inventory divergence; 210R cells, supported by demand outside China, maintained normal inventory levels. Overall, domestic demand had yet to pick up while industry production remained high, and under the supply-demand imbalance, inventory continued to rise, keeping persistent pressure on futures.

PV film

prices

PV-grade EVA:

Current mainstream spot transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin were 10,300-10,500 yuan/mt, with market prices temporarily stable. This week, petrochemical plants' weekly settlement prices are expected to remain stable for now. Recently, international crude oil prices have been fluctuating at highs, and feedstock prices for ethylene and vinyl acetate have also stayed high, providing strong cost support for EVA. Although petrochemical plants' weekly settlement prices are seen as stable this week, PV-grade EVA resin prices may still have room to rise going forward.

PV film:

Currently, 420g transparent EVA film is priced at 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film is priced at 5.28-5.36 yuan/m², with mainstream film transactions showing no significant changes yet. On the cost side, resin prices have edged up recently, and with crude oil prices staying high, market expectations for further resin price increases have been heating up. This week, film manufacturers have initiated a second round of price negotiations and are actively pushing for price hikes. It is expected that this round of film price increases is likely to be implemented, but the specific increase and actual execution still need to be monitored.

Production: This week, affected by maintenance shutdowns at some petrochemical plants, PV-grade EVA production declined; film production schedules in September fluctuated little MoM from August.

Inventory: Currently, petrochemical plant inventories are at low levels, with supply marginally recovering; film enterprise inventories remain within a reasonable range.