Supply remains tight while demand marginally recovers, copper prices drift lower in the short term [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,085/mt, hit a high right at the open, then drifted lower throughout the session, touching a low of $13,958/mt before settling at $14,024.5/mt, down 1.42%. Trading volume reached 27,000 lots, and open interest stood at 274,000 lots, down 1,215 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 106,900 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 107,020 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to a low of 106,650 yuan/mt before settling at 106,920 yuan/mt, down 3.29%. Trading volume reached 50,000 lots, and open interest stood at 185,000 lots, down 3,283 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) According to Mining.com, Aya Gold & Silver's Boumadine project in Morocco saw its after-tax net present value double to $3.5 billion due to higher gold and silver price assumptions, while initial capex rose only 4%. The updated preliminary economic assessment released on the 9th shows that, assuming a gold price of $3,500/oz and a silver price of $50/oz, this lead-zinc-silver-gold project has an internal rate of return of 93% and a payback period of 0.7 years. Initial capex is estimated at $463 million, up from $446 million estimated in 2025, while the mine life has been extended from 11 years to 14 years. "We intend to fund Boumadine using cash on hand and external debt, consistent with our long-term strategy of minimizing dilution, and this will deliver outsized returns to all shareholders," said CEO Benoit La Salle. "We are accelerating development and are confident we can scale the project beyond the results of this study. While Boumadine is primarily a gold project, it also has the potential to double Aya's silver production." The project is located approximately 340 km southeast of Rabat, already holds a mining permit, and is advancing toward a feasibility study in H2 2027. If built, it would add a new large-scale precious metals mine in Morocco and begin silver production, beyond the country's phosphate sector.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 14, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 80 yuan/mt, with an average of a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a rapid decline followed by consolidation at lows. After the open, prices fell quickly from around 109,250 yuan/mt, with the intraday low touching around 108,750 yuan/mt. Prices then rebounded somewhat, briefly climbing back to around 109,050 yuan/mt, but encountered clear resistance. Thereafter, prices mainly consolidated in the 108,800-108,950 yuan/mt range, with the morning session closing at 108,870 yuan/mt. The backwardation between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 660 yuan/mt to 810 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract stood at a profit of 460-730 yuan/mt. During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.61, down 0.08 MoM, and the procurement sentiment was 2.57, down 1.10 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, as it is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2609 contract, some suppliers have already begun quoting against the 2610 contract, with standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of around 700 yuan/mt. As of September 14, SMM social inventory of copper cathode in major regions across China stood at 90,300 mt, up 5,200 mt WoW from Monday last week and up 2,800 mt from last Thursday, but down 63,900 mt YoY. In Shanghai, copper prices pulled back notably last Friday; although downstream buyers actively fixed prices, cargo pick-up was not fully realized, and with small arrivals of imported and domestic material, inventory saw some buildup. In Jiangsu, consumption improved on the back of the copper price correction, and inventory saw slight destocking. Suppliers are expected to quote high premiums against the 2610 contract tomorrow, but since SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract, after conversion based on the price spread between futures contracts, quotes are expected to show a slight discount, which will be corrected on the following day.
(2) Guangdong: On September 14, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 108,910 yuan/mt, down 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,765 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The buying sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.57, down 0.11 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment was 2.82, up 0.02 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, the price spread between futures contracts once exceeded 800 yuan, downstream purchases were quiet, spot premiums fell sharply, and overall trading was lackluster.
(3) Imported copper: On September 14, the average warrant price rose $15/mt from the previous trading day to $100/mt (price range $95-105/mt); the average B/L price rose $15/mt from the previous trading day to $100/mt (price range $95-105/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $5/mt from the previous trading day to $55/mt (price range $50-60/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from September to early October.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 14 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 108,240 yuan/mt, down 1,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was -10 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices fell 300 yuan/mt WoW today. The selling sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials fell to 2.72, while the buying sentiment index rose to 1.82. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,481 yuan/mt, down 730 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 360 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, after copper prices pulled back and consolidated at lows, many secondary copper rod enterprises had taken a significant number of high-priced orders last week. After the pullback in copper prices, secondary copper rod enterprises actively purchased low-priced copper scrap, but traders of copper scrap held limited inventory. With copper prices still falling, their willingness to sell was poor, and overall market transactions were mediocre.
Prices: On the macro front, with the US Fed meeting approaching, escalating geopolitical conflicts pushed energy prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns. Risk-off sentiment combined with expectations of rising interest rates drove the US dollar stronger, and copper prices fell accordingly. On the fundamentals side, supply saw small arrivals of domestic copper and imported cargoes, with limited availability in the market and overall supply remaining tight. On the demand side, the traditional peak season combined with downstream dip-buying led to some demand recovery, but overall demand remained primarily need-based. As of Monday, September 14, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China rose 5,200 mt WoW from the previous Monday to 90,300 mt, with total inventories down 63,900 mt from 154,200 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift lower today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to SMM.]