9.14 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract showed a one-way downward trend. It opened at 2,696 yuan/mt, briefly rose to 2,697 yuan/mt, then pulled back under pressure. It continued to weaken during the session, hitting a low of 2,670 yuan/mt before closing at 2,673 yuan/mt, near the intraday low. The daily candlestick formed a long bearish candle with no upper shadow, with bearish momentum absolutely dominant. Trading volume expanded significantly to 92,893 lots, indicating increased market activity, as bearish funds actively entered to pressure prices. Open interest increased by 14,960 lots to 235,000 lots, with substantial capital inflows driven mainly by bearish positioning, and bearish sentiment notably intensified. From a technical perspective, the closing price of 2,673 yuan/mt has fallen sharply below all moving averages: MA5 (2,732), MA10 (2,753.5), MA20 (2,753.1), and MA40 (2,738.3). The moving averages are in a bearish alignment and diverging downward, with the short-term technical structure deteriorating rapidly. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-2.66) has crossed below DEA (6.85), forming a death cross, with DIFF falling quickly into negative territory. The green histogram continues to expand, and bearish momentum is accelerating, pointing to further downside from a technical standpoint. Overall, the futures market presents a strongly bearish pattern of "rising volume with falling prices, all moving averages lost, and a MACD death cross," with clear short-term weakness. On the downside, watch the 2,650 yuan/mt support level; if it is effectively broken, further downside room will open up. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 2,700 yuan/mt round-number level and near MA5 (2,732). Before bearish momentum is fully released, prices are expected to remain weak and continue to search for a bottom.
Bauxite: As of September 11, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at $72.1/mt, up $0.07/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 540 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was 590 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was 520 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was 365 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was 495 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was 400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was 515 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was $67/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was $60.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM average FOB price of Guinean bauxite was $40/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Guinean bauxite was $71.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite was $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite (washed) was $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Ghanaian bauxite was $78/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average FOB price of Indonesian bauxite was $37/mt in physical content, unchanged from the previous trading day. The CFR price of bauxite (Turkey) was $72.5/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average FOB price of bauxite (Pakistan) was $58.5/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Spot alumina prices: On September 11, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,675.57 yuan/mt, down 0.57 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,677.24 yuan/mt, down 0.43 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,699.45 yuan/mt, down 0.87 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,698.24 yuan/mt, down 0.50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,708.93 yuan/mt, down 1.59 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,589.28 yuan/mt, down 0.88 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 11, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 21.43 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.
Warrant daily: On September 11, total registered alumina warrants stood at 267,800 mt, up 900 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 36,394 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 201,500 mt, up 900 mt from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 11, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.73. Based on this calculation, the price translates to approximately 2,987.47 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, 311.9 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina index.
Summary: As of now, spot alumina prices have remained stable, with relatively limited overall fluctuations. Spot transaction prices were mixed, but the midpoint showed no significant change; futures prices pulled back slightly. In terms of supply, China's weekly alumina production continued to increase, mainly driven by an alumina refinery in Shanxi fully restoring production levels, while operations in other regions remained stable with no notable changes. Outside China, bauxite supply issues in the Indonesian market may affect production going forward, but the impact remains unclear for now, and SMM will continue to monitor the situation. On the inventory side, total alumina inventories in China declined. By segment: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters held at current levels, with relatively small overall changes; finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up, mainly because the nationwide operating rate recovered somewhat, leading to some accumulation of finished products at plants; port inventories dropped sharply, mainly due to re-exports of bonded-zone cargoes and the unloading of some shipments, with the steep decline in port inventories driving overall inventories lower. Looking ahead, alumina prices are expected to remain stable; on the inventory side, port cargo re-exports and unloading will continue, but rising domestic production will provide an offset, with overall inventory expected to rebound slightly.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]
![Futures prices pull back, spot aluminum follows decline; aluminum scrap raw material tightness still provides support [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/iCOMR20251217171653.jpg)
