US CPI Rises as Expected, Consumer Sentiment Dips, Fed Hike Likely Next Week

Published: Sep 12, 2026 15:50

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US August unadjusted CPI rose 3.4% YoY, in line with market expectations, and rose 0.4% MoM, the highest since June this year; seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, above the market expectation of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment index plunged to 47.8, one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%, and US diesel prices broke through the $6 per gallon mark for the first time in history. The market expects the US Fed to have about a 90% probability of a rate hike next week, with two hikes before year-end.

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