China sulphuric acid index falls for 10 consecutive sessions, posting the largest weekly decline of the year; Daye takes the lead in launching the second sharp cut in September [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

       During the week ended September 11, the domestic sulphuric acid market weakened further. The SMM China copper smelting acid index was reported at 1,418 yuan/mt, down 121.5 yuan/mt from the previous Friday (1,539.5 yuan/mt), a weekly decline of 7.9%. Prices weakened day by day during the week, with a sharp single-day drop of 66.5 yuan/mt on Friday. Regional divergence intensified, and the overall decline deepened further.

Regional performance

       East China: The decline continued to deepen, with concentrated cuts along the Yangtze River the key drag. Major acid producers in Anhui cut prices sharply to 1,120-1,170 yuan/mt, mainly due to persistently low operating rates at fertilizer plants and sluggish shipments of smelting acid. In Jiangxi, quotations this week were 1,380-1,480 yuan/mt, with the average price down 140 yuan/mt WoW. In Fujian, EXW prices were 1,580-1,640 yuan/mt, flat WoW, with wait-and-see sentiment still strong in the region. In Shandong, quotations were 1,440-1,600 yuan/mt, while actual transaction prices held at 1,400-1,550 yuan/mt. Downstream demand was generally poor, mainly from chemical channels.

       South-west China: Prices were mostly stable. In Yunnan, leading enterprises raised prices by 30 yuan/mt from September 1, and quotations remained stable this week, with mainstream EXW prices at 1,340-1,400 yuan/mt. However, some local enterprises cut prices by about 50 yuan/mt, so the slight rise in average prices did not reflect an actual improvement in demand. In Guangxi, quotations this week were 1,600-1,700 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In Sichuan, local price centers edged down due to the inflow of low-priced smelting acid from other regions.

       Central China: The starting point of this round of price cuts. Daye Nonferrous Metals in Hubei cut prices by 85 yuan/mt on September 5 and by another 200 yuan/mt on September 11, a total reduction of 285 yuan/mt over two rounds, prompting surrounding enterprises such as Tongling in Anhui to adjust prices. In Hunan, prices were cut by 100 yuan/mt during the week, currently at 1,300-1,400 yuan/mt. In Henan, the average price was lowered by 75 yuan/mt, with mainstream EXW prices at 1,200-1,250 yuan/mt. A large smelter in the region has been under maintenance for 35 days since August 20, with cumulative impact on sulphuric acid of about 50,000 mt. Although the supply-side reduction has materialized, it was fully offset by weak demand and failed to provide substantial support to prices.

       North-west and north China: Relatively stable, with only Qinghai making a clear cut. A large copper smelter in Qinghai cut prices by 100 yuan/mt on September 11. Mainstream quotations in Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Shaanxi held steady from the previous week. In Gansu, listing prices remained stable, but the price spread between local cargoes and outbound shipments widened further, showing clear divergence in regional circulation structures.

       Northeast China and Inner Mongolia: Slight catch-down declines, with limited adjustments. Heilongjiang edged down 15 yuan/mt, Jilin fell 75 yuan/mt, Liaoning held steady, and Inner Mongolia edged down 40 yuan/mt. Regional demand was generally stable, with no wild swings.

       This week, international sulphuric acid prices showed a pattern of weakness in Asia and stability in Africa. Asian export prices generally pulled back: Sulphuric acid (FOB South Korea) was $280-320/mt, with an average price of $310/mt, down $10/mt WoW. Sulphuric acid (FOB India) was $300-350/mt, down $15.5/mt WoW. Sulphuric acid (CFR Indonesia) was $305-325/mt, with an average price of $315/mt, flat WoW. African market quotations were stable: sulphuric acid (EXW DRC) was $910-960/mt, with an average price of $935/mt; sulphuric acid (EXW Zambia) was $380-420/mt, with an average price of $400/mt, both flat WoW.

       This week, domestic sulphur diverged from sulphuric acid, with acid prices falling for consecutive days while sulphur showed a "V-shaped" recovery. Sulphur (EXW Shandong) was quoted at 7,657-8,400 yuan/mt on September 11, with an average price of 8,028.5 yuan/mt, up 53.5 yuan/mt from the previous Friday, a weekly gain of about 0.7%, marking a rebound for two consecutive weeks. Upstream raw material prices stabilized and rebounded, but this failed to transmit to the sulphuric acid market, fully reflecting that the current sulphuric acid market is entirely dominated by its own weak supply-demand fundamentals, with the cost-side influence of alternative raw materials temporarily ineffective.

       In the short term, the domestic sulphuric acid market is unlikely to break out of its weak bottom-seeking pattern, and the national price trend still depends on the pace of price adjustments by mainstream enterprises along the Yangtze River. If core enterprises such as Daye and Tongling continue to lower quotations, the national sulphuric acid index may have further downside room. If top-tier players stabilize quotations first, and inventory pressure forces smelters to proactively cut operating rates and bring forward maintenance, the market decline is expected to gradually narrow and consolidate at lows once supply-side contraction materializes.