Alumina Morning Comment, 9.10
Futures Market: On the night of September 10, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract opened at 2,778 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,787 yuan/mt and a low of 2,758 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,771 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.72% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 74,200 lots, and open interest was 189,700 lots, an increase of 2,087 lots from the previous day. In the MACD indicator, DIF (2.82) was above DEA (-6.46), and the MACD histogram recorded 18.56, still in positive territory, but the red bars narrowed from earlier, indicating that short-term bullish momentum was marginally weakening. During the night session, prices opened higher and then consolidated lower, dipping to an intraday low of 2,758 yuan/mt, accompanied by a slight increase in open interest, suggesting an intensifying tug-of-war between longs and shorts at elevated levels. In the short term, attention should be paid to support near 2,750-2,760 yuan/mt and resistance around 2,790-2,800 yuan/mt.
Bauxite: As of September 9, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index stood at $72.07/mt, down $0.31/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 540 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 495 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 400 yuan/mt, unchanged; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 515 yuan/mt, unchanged. The SMM average CIF price for Australian low-temperature bauxite was $67/mt, unchanged; SMM average CIF price for Australian high-temperature bauxite was $60.5/mt, unchanged; SMM average FOB price for Guinean bauxite was $40/dmt, unchanged; SMM average CIF price for Guinean bauxite was $71.5/mt, unchanged; Malaysian bauxite average CIF price was $52/mt, unchanged; Malaysian washed bauxite average CIF price was $62.5/mt, unchanged; Ghanaian bauxite average CIF price was $78/mt, unchanged; Indonesian bauxite average FOB price was $37/mt in physical content, unchanged; Turkish bauxite CFR price was $72.5/dmt, unchanged; and Pakistani bauxite average FOB price was $58.5/dmt, unchanged. Spot alumina: On September 9, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,676.67 yuan/mt, down 0.46 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,677.84 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,702.98 yuan/mt, down 0.16 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,699.47 yuan/mt, down 0.55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,710.97 yuan/mt, down 0.45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,590.36 yuan/mt, down 1.14 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 9, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 97.33 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant daily: On September 9, total registered alumina warrants stood at 266,976 mt, up 7,774 mt from the previous trading day. Registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 36,394 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, up 2,890 mt from the previous trading day. Registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 200,622 mt, up 3,884 mt from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 9, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.72. Based on this, the price translates to a selling price of about 2,985.43 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 308.76 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index.
Summary: Spot alumina prices were broadly stable this week. Constrained by fluctuations in the futures market, prices held at current levels with limited changes, but the supply side continued to pressure the market. In terms of supply, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi began resuming production, and with some northern enterprises completing maintenance, production recovered somewhat. In Guangxi, enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance have returned to normal levels, though some enterprises in south China still made minor adjustments. Overall production remained on a growth trajectory. Outside China, alumina transaction prices in Australia pulled back from $360/mt to around $350/mt, mainly because the earlier influx of cargoes into China decreased, easing supply pressure outside China and prompting prices to pull back accordingly. In terms of inventory, total domestic inventory increased by 8,000 mt this week to 7.27 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, operating capacity still has room to recover. Prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels, constrained by the futures market, and inventory is expected to edge higher.
[Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]
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