【IEA Boosts 2026 Global Coal Demand Forecast, Citing Gas-to-Coal Switching and Tight Supply】

Published: Sep 11, 2026 09:49

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The International Energy Agency said on 10 September that disruptions to liquefied natural gas supplies caused by the Middle East conflict have pushed up natural gas prices, encouraging greater coal use in markets with spare coal-fired generating capacity. The agency now forecasts global coal demand to grow by 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion tonnes, reversing its previous expectation of a slight decline. An anticipated strong El Niño could also support coal consumption in Asian markets including India and Viet Nam by increasing cooling demand and reducing hydropower output.

On the supply side, the IEA expects global coal production to decline in 2026 while remaining above 9 billion tonnes. Lower domestic output in China and increased coal demand in Japan and Korea are lifting international market demand above previous expectations. Together with tight supply, these factors are expected to support international thermal coal prices.

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