Supply marginally loosens while demand weakens, spot premiums under pressure [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Friday, September 11, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,499/mt, hitting a high of $14,505/mt right at the open before copper prices trended lower throughout the session. Near the close, prices dipped to a low of $14,147/mt, eventually settling at $14,182.5/mt, down 4.25%. Trading volume reached 44,000 lots, and open interest stood at 273,000 lots, up 1,345 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting increased short positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,500 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 109,090 yuan/mt in early trading before copper prices trended lower throughout the session. Near the close, prices dipped to a low of 108,350 yuan/mt, eventually settling at 108,360 yuan/mt, down 3.02%. Trading volume reached 127,000 lots, and open interest stood at 205,000 lots, down 29,600 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting reduced long positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) On Wednesday, September 9, Eldorado Gold announced that its Skouries mine in Greece produced the first gold/copper concentrates, marking the transition from construction to commercial production in Q4. The company fed the first gold/copper ore into the crushing circuit in July and has since been commissioning key process systems such as flotation and tailings thickening circuits. The Skouries ore stockpile currently exceeds 4.6 million mt, providing a solid foundation for the plant's capacity ramp-up and more than seven months of planned processing volume. Skouries is planned to produce an average of 140,000 ounces of gold and 67 million pounds of copper per year over its mine life. "The first gold/copper concentrates from Skouries represent the culmination of years of development, construction, and collaboration, marking the beginning of a new chapter for the company. Skouries is not only a transformative asset for the company, but also one of the most important investment projects in Greece and one of the largest copper/gold projects in Europe," said George Burns, CEO of Eldorado. "Skouries is expected to transform the company into a larger, more diversified producer of precious metals and critical minerals, with a stronger production base, meaningful copper and silver exposure, and enhanced free cash flow generation."
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 10, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 10-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract retreated after multiple rapid rises, opening at 112,400 yuan/mt, repeatedly testing around 112,550 yuan/mt before pulling back during the session. Near the close, prices fell quickly, dipping to a low of 112,190 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 112,290 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 550 yuan/mt to 620 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract ranged from a loss of 800 yuan/mt to a loss of 690 yuan/mt. During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.12, up 0.13 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.61, down 0.04 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, as of the morning close, open interest in the SHFE copper 2609 contract stood at 29,240 lots. According to SMM, suppliers have not yet begun converting deliverable cargoes into warrants. Supply side, arrivals of both imported cargoes and smelter shipments were limited; demand side, copper prices stayed high, and downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement. Overall supply and demand were both weak, and premiums are expected to continue edging down.
(2) Guangdong: On September 10, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 112,610 yuan/mt, up 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 112,500 yuan/mt, up 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.41, down 0.04 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment stood at 2.84, up 0.02 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, available supply was limited and suppliers held offers firm, but downstream demand was weak, leaving overall trading subdued.
(3) Imported copper: On September 10, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $80/mt (price range $75-85/mt); the average B/L price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $80/mt (price range $75-85/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $8/mt from the previous trading day to $47/mt (price range $38-56/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in September.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 10 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 112,290 yuan/mt, up 1,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 85 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices rose 300 yuan/mt WoW. The selling sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials fell to 2.89, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.74. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 5,118 yuan/mt, up 712 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,200 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, as copper prices approached 113,000 yuan, secondary copper rod enterprises faced continuously rising raw material procurement costs and had to turn wait-and-see. Meanwhile, after secondary copper raw material traders shipped goods over the past two days, their inventories were low, and they were waiting for copper prices to reach 115,000 yuan before selling again, reducing shipments in the short term. Trading activity for secondary copper raw materials visibly declined during the day.
Prices: On the macro front, reports said the White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs, with officials weighing the potential benefits of encouraging domestic mining against the risk that higher copper prices could push up manufacturing costs. The news eased concerns over tight copper supply in non-US regions, and copper prices fell under pressure. Fundamentals side, supply arrivals of both domestic and imported cargoes increased in the short term, leaving supply marginally looser. Demand side, copper prices broke above highs, and downstream acceptance of current prices was low, with strong wait-and-see sentiment and visibly softening demand. Inventory side, as of Thursday, September 10, SMM copper inventories across major Chinese regions fell 1,400 mt WoW to 87,500 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to SMM]