Cost Support Meets Supply-Demand Tug-of-War; Silicon Metal Prices Stay Stagnant and Stable [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM, September 10: Silicon metal: Silicon metal trading remained in a stalemate with prices consolidating. As of September 10, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #421 silicon was at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the SI2611 contract moved sideways around 8,700-8,900 yuan/mt this week. Affected by the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, prices repeatedly pulled back and forth around the 8,800 yuan/mt level, and closed at 8,745 yuan/mt on Friday afternoon, up 10 yuan/mt WoW. In terms of market quotes and transactions, silicon producers' quotes remained firm, with quotes largely stable this week. Spot-futures traders also leaned firm on quotes due to high-level consolidation in the futures market. Trucking freight rates stayed high recently, and downstream acceptance of high spot prices was moderate. Some users were less active in procurement than last week, with the market mostly buying on dips or making just-in-time procurement. Wait-and-see sentiment persisted, transactions overall maintained a just-in-time pace, and the price center remained stagnant and stable.

Demand side, polysilicon enterprises' weekly production schedules were stable overall, with a few polysilicon producers raising operating loads. Polysilicon demand for silicon metal in September increased MoM from August. Silicone enterprises' weekly operating rate edged down slightly, mainly affected by production cuts and load reductions at individual monomer enterprises. The silicone industry's overall operating rate remained around 60%. Recently, driven by a sharp rally in raw material methanol, costs increased and silicone DMC quotes followed higher. Aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises' operating rates were basically stable. With the end of the high-temperature season and the approaching traditional September-October peak season, end-use demand has expectations of marginal improvement, but the improvement is expected to be mild, and downstream still mainly places just-in-time orders.

Overall, silicon metal supply-side production cuts were larger in September, with a theoretical destocking balance and genuine fundamental improvement. Meanwhile, rising prices of raw materials such as silicon coal further strengthened production cost support, leaving limited downside room for prices. From the perspective of 2026 historical prices, although spot gains were only a few hundred yuan, spot price fluctuations this year were very small. Current spot prices are already at the high end of this year's range. Combined with no growth in end-use demand and moderate downstream acceptance of high spot prices, prices also face some resistance on the upside. Short-term silicon metal prices are expected to remain in a stalemate and continue to consolidate at highs.

Polysilicon: This week, the polysilicon price index was 40.85 yuan/kg, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39-42.6 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 39-40 yuan/kg. Market quotes remained largely stable this week, with no large-volume transactions yet. The related meeting has concluded, and market rumors were not entirely accurate. Production cut plans do exist, but the extent of implementation remains to be seen, with cuts expected to be concentrated in south-west China. The market is currently resistant to high-priced resources, and some traders have entered to purchase. Further meetings are still ahead, and their outcomes will be monitored.

Wafer: Wafer prices continued their downward trend this week. N-type 183 wafers were priced at 1.052-1.085 yuan/piece, 210R wafers at 1.053-1.083 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers at 1.145-1.18 yuan/piece. Supply side, September wafer production schedules rebounded MoM, while inventory continued to accumulate and shipment pressure on enterprises remained unabated. Demand side, solar cell procurement stayed weak. Affected by their own inventory, orders, and profitability pressures, enterprises had limited willingness to restock, and their ability to absorb wafer prices was weak. Overall, the wafer supply-demand imbalance remains pronounced, and prices are likely to stay in the doldrums in the short term.

For more detailed market information and dynamics, or for other inquiries, please call 021-51666820.