Supply tightness expectations boost copper prices to a new high overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, September 9: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,677/mt. Early in the session, the price center dipped to $14,469/mt, then drifted higher to test $14,779/mt. It eventually moved sideways within a narrow range and closed at $14,728/mt, up 1.61%. Trading volume reached 27,300 lots, and open interest reached 267,000 lots, an increase of 453 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 111,170 yuan/mt and bottomed at 110,960 yuan/mt right after the open. The price center then rose to a high of 111,710 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways within a narrow range at elevated levels to close at 111,300 yuan/mt, up 0.94%. Trading volume reached 50,000 lots, and open interest reached 230,000 lots, an increase of 13 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions. On the macro front, tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate: the US and Iran successively attacked oil tankers, and Saudi energy facilities were again hit by the Houthi forces. Higher oil prices fueled market concerns over rising inflation, but the market remained cautious and waited for this week’s CPI data release, which will provide key guidance for subsequent US Fed interest-rate decisions. Meanwhile, the market continued to price in expectations that the US will impose additional tariff on copper cathode. Coupled with persistently low inventories at the LME and SHFE, this reinforced expectations of tight supply in non-US regions, jointly supporting copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side, available cargoes in Shanghai were relatively tight, with limited circulation for some brands, and spot circulation remained tight; demand side, affected by the recent surge in copper prices, end-use consumption was restrained, and downstream trading sentiment was sluggish. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note today.