[The most-traded alumina contract rose on position increases to approach 2,800 yuan/mt; spot alumina remains under slight pressure - SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

Alumina Morning Comment for September 9:

Futures Market: On the night of September 9, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract opened at 2,778 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,822 yuan/mt and a low of 2,771 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,798 yuan/mt, up 39 yuan/mt or 1.41% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 124,500 lots, and open interest was 183,300 lots, an increase of 25,908 lots from the previous day. From a technical perspective, prices traded above the MA5 (2,781.20), MA10 (2,745.60), MA20 (2,740.25), MA40 (2,752.40), and MA60 (2,790.18), indicating further strengthening in the short- to medium-term technical picture. In the MACD indicator, DIF (3.55) was above DEA (-8.38), and the MACD histogram recorded 23.87, with the red bars continuing to expand, suggesting strong short-term bullish momentum. During the night session, prices rose on increased open interest and briefly touched 2,822 yuan/mt, ultimately holding above the MA60. In the short term, attention should remain on resistance near 2,800-2,820 yuan/mt and the sustainability of position building, with support seen in the 2,770-2,780 yuan/mt zone.

Bauxite: As of September 8, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index stood at $72.38/mt, up $0.38/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 540 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 495 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 400 yuan/mt, unchanged; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 515 yuan/mt, unchanged; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $67/mt, unchanged; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $60.5/mt, unchanged; the SMM Guinean bauxite FOB average was $40/dmt, unchanged; the SMM Guinean bauxite CIF average was $71.5/mt, unchanged; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average was $52/mt, unchanged; the Malaysian washed bauxite CIF average was $62.5/mt, unchanged; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF average was $78/mt, unchanged; the Indonesian bauxite FOB average was $37/mt in physical content, unchanged; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $72.5/dmt, unchanged; and the Pakistani bauxite FOB average was $58.5/dmt, unchanged.

Spot alumina prices: On September 8, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,677.13 yuan/mt, down 0.88 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,678.18 yuan/mt, down 0.43 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,703.14 yuan/mt, down 2.2 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,700.02 yuan/mt, down 1.01 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,711.42 yuan/mt, down 0.65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,591.50 yuan/mt, down 1.64 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 8, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 46.87 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.

Warrant daily: On September 8, total registered alumina warrants stood at 259,202 mt, up 9,123 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 36,334 mt, up 7,018 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 20,978 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 196,798 mt, up 2,105 mt from the previous trading day.

Markets outside China: As of September 8, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.4/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.73. Based on this calculation, the price translates to an external selling price of about 2,986.82 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 309.69 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina index.

Summary: Spot alumina prices remained broadly stable this week, held at current levels by fluctuations in the futures market, with limited movement, though the supply side continued to pressure the market. In terms of supply, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi began resuming production, and with some northern enterprises completing maintenance, production recovered somewhat; in Guangxi, enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance have returned to normal levels, while a few enterprises in south China still made minor adjustments, with overall production still showing growth. Outside China, Australian alumina transaction prices pulled back from $360/mt to around $350/mt, mainly because the earlier influx of cargoes into China has diminished, easing supply pressure outside China and prompting prices to pull back accordingly. Inventory side, total national inventory increased by 8,000 mt to 7.27 million mt this week. Looking ahead to next week, operating capacity still has room for recovery, prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels under pressure from futures, and inventory is expected to edge up slightly.

[All data other than public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]