GACC: China's January-August copper ore and concentrate imports totaled 19.49 million mt, down 2.8% YoY

The global copper concentrate market is facing increasingly structural tightness as smelting capacity expands faster than the availability of concentrates for third-party processors, according to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco).​ In its newly released Concentrate Market and Smelter Industry Report 2026, Cochilco said declining ore grades, project delays and operational disruptions have constrained mine-side concentrate supply, while new smelting capacity has continued to expand rapidly, particularly in China and Indonesia.​ The imbalance has pushed spot treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs, to near-zero and in some cases negative levels during 2025 and 2026. Cochilco said the pressure is not purely cyclical, noting that part of future mine production is expected to be processed at integrated facilities in producing countries rather than sold into the merchant concentrate market.​ As a result, concentrate availability for independent smelters could remain tight even if global mine supply improves toward 2028.​ The report estimates that identified projects could add around 8.2 million mt/year of fine-copper-equivalent smelting capacity globally by 2041, with most of the growth concentrated in Asia. China and India are expected to account for nearly half of the planned additions, further intensifying competition for feedstock.​ Cochilco also highlighted Chile’s position in the market. The country accounted for around 23% of global copper concentrate production in 2025 and has approximately 5.44 million mt/year of concentrate treatment capacity, the largest in Latin America. However, Chilean smelters currently operate at only around 60% of installed capacity.​ The report reinforces the view that pressure on the global concentrate market could persist even if mine supply recovers. Continued smelting expansion without equivalent growth in freely traded concentrate supply is likely to keep TC/RCs under pressure and strengthen miners’ negotiating position. For smelters, profitability may increasingly depend on higher utilisation rates, better operational efficiency and additional revenues from sulfuric acid, energy and associated-metal recovery rather than TC/RC income alone.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is accelerating efforts to centralize geological information through a national geological databank, as the government seeks greater oversight of data that could shape future exploration and development of copper and other critical minerals. The databank is expected to become fully operational by the end of 2026 and will consolidate information generated through geological mapping, airborne surveys and the digitization of historical records. Under the planned framework, the DRC will introduce a tiered access system for geological information. Basic geological data will be available free of charge, while access to more sensitive datasets will be fee-based. Requests for information will also be assessed according to investor requirements and the protection of the country's strategic interests. Raoul Wazenga Vitima, director general of the National Geological Survey of Congo, said revenues generated from certain datasets would help finance continued geological exploration and mapping. The initiative comes as the DRC attempts to improve its understanding of mineral resources outside its established mining regions. Despite being the world's second-largest copper producer, only around 20% of the country has undergone systematic exploration, according to the National Geological Survey. Exploration activity remains concentrated in the copper-cobalt belt of Lualaba and Haut-Katanga, leaving substantial areas of the country comparatively underexplored. A major component of the programme is a $180 million, three-year geological mapping contract with Spain's Xcalibur, which began in January 2026. The programme is surveying more than 700,000 km² using airborne geophysics, digitized geological information and advanced analytical techniques to identify potential exploration targets. The DRC is also working with several other international partners on geological-data and mapping initiatives. For the copper market, the initiative could have important longer-term implications for exploration and mine development in the DRC. More comprehensive geological information could reduce exploration uncertainty, improve targeting and help direct investment toward prospective areas outside the country's established Copperbelt. Given the relatively limited systematic exploration conducted across the country, improved geological coverage could ultimately expand the pipeline of copper and other critical-mineral projects. At the same time, the access framework demonstrates the government's intention to retain sovereignty over strategically important geological information. President Félix Tshisekedi has previously described sovereignty over the country's mineral resources and geological data as a non-negotiable principle. The ultimate impact on mining investment will therefore depend on how transparently the tiered system is implemented, including its fee structure and criteria governing access to sensitive datasets. If implemented transparently, the databank could reduce information barriers and broaden the country's exploration investor base; more restrictive access could instead increase costs for early-stage explorers. The initiative represents another step in the DRC's strategy to exert greater influence over how its mineral resources are identified and developed while seeking to attract investment into its substantial undeveloped mineral potential.