[SMM Steel Export Analysis] August Steel Exports Edged Up; Order Recovery Underpins Further Gains in September

According to data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC) released on September 8, China exported 10.155 million tonnes of steel in August 2026, up 34,000 tonnes from the previous month, +0.3% MoM; cumulative exports in January–August reached 75.149 million tonnes, down 3% YoY.

In August 2026, China imported 434,000 tonnes of steel, down 11,000 tonnes from the previous month, –2.4% MoM; cumulative imports in January–August reached 3.574 million tonnes, down 10.5% YoY.

Steel Import & Export Data at a Glance

Data source: SMM、GACC

• Narrow growth in China's steel exports in August

The customs data growth is directionally consistent with the rebound in SMM's leading indicator — the steel export order intake survey: July SMM order intake rose 6.5% MoM, with both long and flat products improving, which materialized into August export volumes as expected. SMM's survey points to several factors supporting the order rebound: first, restocking demand was partly released, supported by overseas manufacturing downstream sectors such as home appliances stocking up for Q3 and expectations of higher prices; second, low-priced resources remain attractive to price-sensitive emerging markets — by destination, inquiries from markets such as Turkey and Pakistan performed reasonably well; meanwhile, disruptions in the Middle East and blocked shipping routes in the Persian Gulf lifted export volumes to emerging markets in Africa and South America on both a YoY and MoM basis, with this incremental demand effectively underpinning total order intake.

China's Total Steel Exports

Data source: SMM、GACC

Short-Term Steel Export Outlook

1. Global manufacturing activity rebounds from a low base; external demand improves marginally

In August 2026, J.P. Morgan's Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, up 0.2 point from July, hitting a three-month high and remaining above the 50 no-change threshold for the 13th consecutive month. Major sub-indices such as output, new orders and employment all improved, with new momentum including AI and semiconductors continuing to support Asian manufacturing expansion; the European market also improved on the back of rising orders, although rising energy costs and supply-chain disruptions remain potential constraints.

Domestically, the manufacturing new export orders index rose to 50.1% in August, up 0.5 percentage point MoM and returning to expansion, indicating a marginal recovery in external demand. However, the current manufacturing improvement still has distinct structural features: the ferrous metal smelting and rolling sector remains in contraction in both production and new orders, and direct steel demand from traditional sectors such as real estate and construction is recovering only to a limited extent; meanwhile, this round of manufacturing recovery is driven more by new-momentum industries such as electrical machinery and electronic equipment, whose transmission to steel demand — especially flat products — is relatively slow. Therefore, the short-term overseas demand environment has improved somewhat compared with the previous period, which is conducive to supporting steel export inquiries and rigid demand purchases, but the actual boost to export orders still needs to be monitored.

2. Overseas crude steel output stays resilient and expanding; China's contraction dominates the global total decline

Global crude steel production in July 2026 was 149.2 million tonnes, down 0.3% YoY, with daily-average output contracting 7.3% MoM; the monthly decline in the global total was almost entirely driven by China's sharp contraction. China's daily-average crude steel output fell 11.1% MoM in July to 2.48 million tonnes/day — the first genuine monthly contraction this year — weighed on by the hot-rainy off-season in the south, widening mill losses, and production curbs in Tangshan at end-month. Excluding China, overseas crude steel output was about 72.3 million tonnes in July, up 3.5% YoY, with daily-average output easing only 2.8% MoM — a normal seasonal dip consistent with the northern-hemisphere summer maintenance/shutdown cycle, with no additional signal of fundamental deterioration. On a cumulative basis, overseas crude steel output in Jan–Jul reached 504 million tonnes, up 2.4% YoY, with annualized output rising to 864 million tonnes, already exceeding the 843 million tonnes produced in full-year 2025. Overseas supply overall remains in an expanding, resilient pattern — the output gains in Europe and North America rely more on trade-protection-driven recovery of domestic market share than on genuine expansion of end demand, while India, Vietnam and South Korea continue to produce at high levels. Key factors to watch going forward: the consumption pace of EU Q3 import quotas, the rise in compliance costs for transit-trade routes after the "melt-and-pour" certificate of origin requirement takes effect on October 1, and the pace of Chinese mills' resumption after September output controls plus whether "Golden September" demand materializes; in the short term, the room for marginal growth in overseas demand is limited.

Crude Steel Production by Region

Data source: SMM、Worldsteel

3. China-overseas steel price spreads widened further; order intake outlook remains constructive

Based on the China-overseas steel price spread model, China-overseas spreads widened somewhat in August, as cost increases pushed up global prices and overseas price gains remained larger than domestic. Combined with the overseas seasonal transition and improved marginal demand expectations, China's relatively low prices continue to support order intake to a certain extent. As of August 31, 2026, export quotations (FOB) for hot-rolled coil were USD 520/t in India, USD 585/t in Turkey, and USD 495/t in the CIS, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) stood at USD 498/t.

Global Steel Price Spread Model

Data source: SMM Global Steel Price Weekly

4. SMM export orders continued to recover in August, up 6.95% MoM

Based on SMM steel export order performance, total orders in August reached 3.0547 million mt, up 6.95% MoM from 2.8562 million mt in July. By product, long steel fell 1.83%, while sheets & plates recovered, rising 16.24%. Specifically, for long steel, especially billets, earlier low resource prices prompted active purchasing by downstream buyers outside China, and inventories in some markets have accumulated to high levels, with procurement demand pulled forward, so the pace of taking orders pulled back notably. For sheets & plates, benefiting from concentrated Q3 stockpiling by downstream home appliance sectors in overseas manufacturing, combined with market expectations for price rises after the seasonal transition, downstream stocking willingness increased, so order volumes recovered.

SMM Steel Export Order Intake

Data source: SMM Global Steel Price Weekly

5. Steel anti-dumping cases in August

The varieties involved in new anti-dumping-related cases in China decreased in August, mainly including steel pipes, coated steel, section steel, hot-rolled steel, and medium-thickness plates. The specific cases and affected volumes are shown in the table below:

New anti-dumping cases in August

Source: SMM, China Trade Remedies Information

In summary, based on the transmission pace of SMM order-taking as a leading indicator, orders in August rose 6.95% MoM. Combined with the transition period from the off-season to the peak season, steel exports in September are expected to continue rebounding from August. In terms of demand in markets outside China, as the rainy season and monsoon climate recede, some Asian markets have shown signs of improvement, while logistics pressure previously disrupted by weather will gradually ease, and the order-taking side is also expected to recover further.

Steel exports and forecasts, 2024-2026

Data source: SMM、GACC

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