Since late August, the spot price center of domestic tungsten concentrates has consolidated lower. A leading tungsten enterprise in Chongyi announced its long-term contract purchase prices for the first half of September, with wolframite and scheelite concentrate long-term contract quotes both slightly lowered, while the APT quote remained unchanged. The long-term contract adjustment echoed the recent spot market trend. The tungsten market is currently in a supply-demand weak pattern. Although the market holds expectations for the traditional "September peak season," tungsten prices are unlikely to see a major trend before real downstream consumption increases significantly.
Leading tungsten enterprise lowers long-term contract quotes for first half of September
The long-term contract purchase quotes of a leading tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the first half of September are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 413,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 2,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 412,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 2,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 3. APT (national standard zero grade): 600,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous round.
Peak season expectations not yet realized; wolframite concentrate price center has shifted lower since late August
According to SMM price data, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on September 7 was 412,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 0.24% from the previous trading day. Looking back at the price trend of wolframite concentrates, since the average price began to pull back on August 27, its price center has generally edged down. The average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on September 7 was down 6,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), or 1.43%, from 418,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on August 26.
The flooding season in July-August disrupted output at some domestic tungsten mines; however, downstream was in the traditional off-season, and end-users only carried out essential restocking. The large-scale concentrated restocking expected for the "September peak season" has not yet materialized. In addition, APT smelter inventories were at relatively high levels in the earlier period, and traders showed low willingness to stockpile. Both the ore side and the APT smelting side generally adopted reduced production modes, with production activities prioritizing long-term contract deliveries, leaving spot circulation relatively thin. Before inventories are digested to a certain extent, the market lacks strong upward drivers.
Outlook: short term depends on "September peak season" verification; medium and long term depends on resonance between old and new demand
Looking ahead, the core issue for the tungsten market in September is not a one-sided direction, but whether peak season expectations can be realized. In the short term, the probability of either a sharp rally or a deep decline is low, and prices are more likely to move sideways, with the price center having room to edge up slightly. In the medium and long term, the logic of tightening tungsten ore supply and expanding emerging demand remains unchanged, but a trend-driven market still needs to wait for substantial inventory destocking and demand resonance.
On the supply side, tightening of primary ore is the medium- and long-term main theme, but in the short term it is offset by growth and inventories. Total domestic tungsten ore mining volume controls continue, making tight primary ore supply a certainty; however, increased imports of overseas resources and a clear YoY rise in tungsten scrap recycling supply have partially eased ore-side pressure. Meanwhile, inventories of intermediate products such as APT and tungsten powder remain high. Before downstream recovers, supply contraction is difficult to translate directly into price elasticity.
On the demand side, traditional downstream determines the short-term pace, while emerging sectors affect medium- and long-term upside room. Cemented carbide enterprises are still mainly digesting inventories and producing based on sales. A recovery in operating rates depends on the real implementation of the terminal manufacturing peak season. Even if conditions improve, demand growth will be relatively mild. Emerging demand such as AI PCB micro-drills, tungsten hexafluoride, and PV tungsten wire is growing rapidly, but currently accounts for only about 7% of tungsten consumption, making it hard to dominate domestic tungsten prices in the short term. It is more like a medium- and long-term floor variable.
Overseas variables provide sentiment support, but transmission is slow. US tungsten scrap export controls have tightened global recycled resource flows and raised overseas smelting costs, which helps repair the APT price spread between China and overseas and improve domestic market sentiment. However, the European and American industry chains are still in a destocking phase, and the pace of external demand release is relatively slow, making it difficult to form pulse-style concentrated procurement. It is hard for this to directly drive a sharp rise in domestic spot prices in the short term.
Overall, September is a window period for switching from "peak season expectations" to "reality verification." If the recovery in tungsten end-use demand falls short of expectations and orders remain persistently weak, the tungsten market may return to a stagnant consolidation. Only when real consumption of cemented carbide clearly recovers, driving substantial destocking of intermediate product inventories, and is accompanied by simultaneous volume growth in overseas demand, will tungsten prices have the conditions to open upside room. In the medium and long term, the direction of supply constraints and emerging demand growth is clear, but a major trend-driven market still requires resonance between traditional consumption recovery and volume growth in emerging sectors.
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