Since late August, the spot price center of tungsten concentrates in China has consolidated and pulled back. A leading tungsten enterprise in Chongyi announced its long-term contract purchase prices for the first half of September, with quotes for wolframite and scheelite concentrates both slightly lowered, while the APT quote remained unchanged. The long-term contract adjustment echoed the recent spot market trend. The tungsten market is currently in a supply-demand weak pattern. Although the market holds expectations for the traditional "September peak season," tungsten prices are unlikely to see a major move before real downstream consumption shows a significant increase.
Leading tungsten enterprise lowers long-term contract quotes for first half of September
The long-term contract purchase prices from a leading tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the first half of September are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 413,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 2,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 412,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 2,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round; 3. APT (national standard zero grade): 600,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous round.
Peak season expectations not yet realized; wolframite concentrates price center has moved lower since late August
According to SMM data, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on September 7 was 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, down 0.24% from the previous trading day. Looking back at the price trend of wolframite concentrates, since the average price began to pull back on August 27, its price center has generally edged down. Compared with the average price of 418,500 yuan/standard tonne on August 26, the average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne on September 7 fell by 6,000 yuan/standard tonne, a decline of 1.43%.
The flooding season from July to August disrupted output at some tungsten mines in China; however, downstream was in the traditional off-season, and end-users only carried out essential restocking. The large-scale concentrated restocking expected for the "September peak season" has not yet materialized. In addition, APT smelter inventories were at relatively high levels earlier, and traders showed low willingness to stockpile. Both the ore side and APT smelting side generally adopted reduced production modes, with production activities prioritizing long-term contract deliveries, leaving spot circulation relatively thin. Before inventories are sufficiently digested, the market lacks a strong upward driver.
Outlook: near term depends on "September peak season" verification; medium and long-term depends on new and old demand resonance
Looking ahead, the core of the tungsten market in September is not a one-sided direction, but whether peak season expectations can be realized. In the short term, the probability of a sharp rally or deep decline is low, and prices are more likely to move sideways, with the price center having potential for a slight rise. In the medium and long term, the logic of tightening tungsten ore supply and expanding emerging demand remains unchanged, but a trending market still needs to wait for substantial inventory destocking and demand resonance.
Supply side, tightening of primary ore is the medium and long-term main theme, but in the short term it is offset by growth and inventory. China's total mining volume control for tungsten ore continues, making tight primary ore supply a certainty; however, increased imports of overseas resources and a notable YoY rise in scrap tungsten recycling supply have partially eased ore-side pressure. Meanwhile, inventories of intermediate products such as APT and tungsten powder remain high, and before downstream recovery, supply contraction is difficult to directly translate into price elasticity.
Demand side, traditional downstream determines the short-term pace, while emerging sectors influence medium and long-term room. Hard alloy enterprises still focus on digesting inventories and producing based on sales, and the rebound in operating rate depends on the actual arrival of the peak season in end-use manufacturing; even if improvement occurs, demand growth will be relatively mild. Emerging demand such as AI PCB micro-drills, tungsten hexafluoride, and PV tungsten wire is growing rapidly, but currently accounts for only about 7% of tungsten consumption, making it hard to dominate China's tungsten prices in the short term, and it is more of a medium and long-term floor variable.
Overseas variables provide sentiment support, but transmission is relatively slow. US tungsten scrap export controls tighten global recycled resource flows, raise overseas smelting costs, and help repair the APT price spread between China and overseas and improve sentiment in the Chinese market; however, the European and US industry chains are still in the destocking phase, the pace of external demand release is relatively slow, making it difficult to form pulse-style concentrated procurement, and it is hard to directly drive a sharp rise in domestic spot prices in the short term.
Overall, September is a window period for switching from "peak season expectations" to "reality verification." If tungsten end-use demand recovery falls short of expectations and orders remain persistently weak, the tungsten market may return to a stagnant consolidation; only when real consumption of hard alloys clearly recovers, driving substantial destocking of intermediate product inventories, and combined with simultaneous volume growth in overseas demand, will tungsten prices have the conditions to open upside room. In the medium and long term, supply constraints and emerging demand growth directions are clear, but a major trend still requires traditional consumption recovery and emerging sector volume growth to resonate.
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