SHFE/LME price ratio weakens, suppliers hold back, spot market activity low in early trading [SMM Yangshan spot copper]

Analysis: In August 2026, the copper price center shifted significantly higher, and the price spread between primary metal and scrap widened accordingly. Under the traditional transmission logic, a widening primary-scrap price spread would drive copper scrap to flow intensively into the smelting sector, thereby boosting supply of secondary blister copper and anode plates...

[SMM Analysis: Supply Pressure and Rigid Demand Make the Supply-Demand Imbalance in the Blister Copper Market Difficult to Reverse in the Short Term] In August 2026, the copper price center shifted significantly upward, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap widened accordingly. According to the traditional transmission logic, a widening price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap would drive copper scrap to flow intensively into the smelting sector, thereby boosting the supply of secondary blister copper and copper anode. However, in reality, the transmission chain has been notably obstructed...

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, downstream orders remain weak, and end-user purchase willingness is low. Intraday purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai region pulled back notably, with the market still dominated by rigid-demand purchases. Suppliers lowered their quotes repeatedly to facilitate transactions, with the transaction center for standard-quality copper gradually shifting from a premium of over 200 yuan/mt in early trading to around 130-140 yuan/mt, reflecting that downstream acceptance of current copper prices and spot premiums remains limited. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between contracts remains at a relatively high level of 440-530 yuan/mt, and suppliers still face pressure from position rollover and selling, which may continue to weigh on spot premiums. Overall, given weak downstream demand, insufficient purchase willingness, and suppliers cutting prices to sell, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to face slight downward pressure tomorrow. However, as the premium center continues to pull back, some low-priced cargoes may gradually attract rigid demand, and further downside is expected to be relatively limited.