US nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations, rate hike expectations heat up and pressure copper prices [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Sep 7, 2026 08:55

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SMM, Sept 7: LME copper opened at $14,332.5/mt on Friday night, dipped to $14,277/mt in early trading, then the price center drifted higher and climbed to $14,419/mt near the close, finally settling at $14,378.5/mt, up 0.11%. Trading volume rose to 17,000 lots, and open interest rose to 266,000 lots, an increase of 1,102 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that bulls added positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,760 yuan/mt on Friday night, bottomed at 108,720 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center rose and touched a high of 109,390 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 109,290 yuan/mt, up 0.16%. Trading volume rose to 26,000 lots, and open interest rose to 211,000 lots, an increase of 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that bulls added positions. On the macro front, US nonfarm payrolls in August recorded an increase of 162,000, far exceeding market expectations. The market bet that the probability of a US Fed rate hike in September rose to nearly 60%, and the renewed warming of rate-hike expectations put some pressure on copper prices’ upside room. On the fundamentals front, supply-side availability showed localized divergence: available supply in Shanghai continued to tighten, and the overall market remained in a tight pattern. Demand side, with copper prices still at elevated levels, downstream purchasing remained mainly for rigid demand and restocking on dips. Overall, affected by the warming of rate-hike expectations, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.

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